Contact! Monday's Base Hit Builder

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By John Laghezza | Last updated Jun 23, 2025 11:13 AM ET

More fun with numbers as I take you through today's best bets for a base knock. We'll isolate today's MLB slate's pitch-to-contact SPs — and which hitters they'll face who've frequently put quality balls in play over the last two weeks (min 30 PAs).

Today's SP Contact Targets (+90% Zone-Contact & +44% Hard Hit Rates)

SD Stephen Kolek — 52.2 IP; 92.5% Zone-Contact, 50.3% Hard Hit vs. WSH
STL Matthew Liberatore — 79.1 IP; 91.9% Zone-Contact, 44.8% Hard Hit vs. CHC
LAA Jack Kochanowicz — 77.0 IP; 91.8% Zone-Contact, 49.2% Hard Hit vs. BOS

All Opposing Hitters w/+80% Contact, +40% Hard Hit, & +.270 Expected Batting Average, Last Two Weeks

WAS C.J. Abrams — 60 PA; +80% Contact, +43% Hard Hit & +.298 Expected Batting Average
WAS Luis Garcia — 49 PA; +81% Contact, +54% Hard Hit & +.328 Expected Batting Average
CHC Michael Busch — 44 PA; +81% Contact, +41% Hard Hit & +.270 Expected Batting Average

Honorable Mention:

BOS Roman Anthony — 36 PA; +81% Contact, +48% Hard Hit & +.244 Expected Batting Average

LAGHEZZAS LEANS:

Intentionally setting all the parameters really high on both sides of our base hit matrix leaves us with just a handful of results per slate — but I gotta say I love every one of these guys for a hit today.

Our keep it simple methodology sets a nice low bar to clear in a really difficult hitter market. Players only get a small handful of at-bats every game, where a couple of walks and a HBP could otherwise ruin your day.

Not to be sneaky but the Busch vs. Liberatore matchup really started irking me and I bailed. Meanwhile, Anthony vs. Kochanowicz comes at a similar price in a much better spot. Hopefully the pivot doesn't bite me on the bottom...

TODAY'S ACTION:

THREE-LEG BASE HIT PARLAY (+161) on Fanduel

C.J. Abrams, WAS
Luis Garcia, WAS
Roman Anthony, BOS

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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