Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) celebrates with Cincinnati Reds third baseman Jeimer Candelario (3) after hitting a 3-run home run to take a one run lead in the third inning of the MLB game against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Thursday, June 6, 2024. Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Look: FanGraphs Releases 2025 Cincinnati Reds Player Projections

Originally posted on Cincinnati Reds on SI
By Greg Kuffner | Last updated Jan 2, 2025 12:23 PM ET

FanGraphs released their projections for the 2025 Cincinnati Reds.

“The Reds look a lot like a .500 team in 2025, but they don’t appear to be a doomed, hopeless one, which is something," wrote FanGraphs' Dan Szymbroski.

Elly De La Cruz is projected to lead the Reds with an fWAR of 5.0. Zips projects the young superstar to slash .263/.335/.472 with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases.

Interestingly enough, Matt McLain is projected to be the Reds' second-best player after missing the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery.

The 25-year-old is projected to have an fWAR of 4.0 and slash .254/.340/.449 with 50 extra-base hits and 17 stolen bases.

ZiPS also really likes the Reds' catching tandem of Tyler Stephenson and newly acquired Jose Trevino. They project the duo to have an fWAR of 3.6, the third-best on the team.

Outside of that, ZiPS isn't high on the Reds lineup. "But while the rest of the lineup isn’t disastrous, it is a giant bucket of “meh," Szymbroski wrote.

The trio of Noelvi Marte, Santiago Espinal, and Jeimer Candelario are projected to have an fWAR of just 0.7 at third base, the worst on the team.

On the pitching side, ZiPS projects Hunter Greene to have another strong season. They project the right-hander to go 8-7 with a 3.62 ERA and 172 strikeouts in 154 1/3 innings. His projected fWAR of 3.8 would match that of last season.

To complete the rotation, ZiPS forecasts Nick Martinez leading the way with a projected 2.6 fWAR, followed by Andrew Abbott at 1.8. Nick Lodolo and Brady Singer are both expected to contribute 1.3 fWAR, with Rhett Lowder rounding out the group at 0.8 fWAR.

ZiPS is not a fan of the Reds' bullpen, projecting the bullpen to combine for a -0.3 fWAR.

"Outside of Alexis Díaz, Martinez when used in relief, and Ashcraft if he finds his way there, ZiPS finds the Reds relievers to be a lackluster mix of arms," wrote Szymbroski. "The big exception might beTony Santillan, who pitched very well for the big club but walked five batters per game in the minors. Still, if he continues to pitch like he did in August and September, his projection will turn around fairly quickly."

These projections align with the sentiments of Reds fans, underscoring the need for the team to acquire additional talent if they aim to contend in 2025.

You can see the full list of ZiPS projections here.