Marcus Semien, Blue Jays agree to one-year, $18M deal

The Toronto Blue Jays continued their push to join the top tier of contenders in the American League today. The Jays have reached an agreement to sign free agent shortstop Marcus Semien to a one-year, $18M deal. In Semien, GM Ross Atkins lands a high-ceiling bat for 2021 and takes another significant piece off the board.

Semien became a star during his six seasons in Oakland, and yet, it wasn’t a clean, linear process. He began his career with the White Sox, but found himself heading to Oakland as part of a December 2014 deal that sent Jeff Samardzija to the White Sox. For the next three seasons, Semien produced as a solid regular with an average of 1.98 fWAR per 600 plate appearances from 2015 to 2017. In 2018, the San Francisco native enjoyed a mini-breakout by cutting his strikeout rate from 22.0 percent to 18.6 percent and bumping his fWAR total to 3.9fWAR. Much of that value, however, came on the defensive end.

His bat caught up in a major way the following season as Semien slashed .285/.369/.522 with a career-high 33 home runs, 13.7 percent strikeout rate, 10.6 percent walk rate, and 138 wRC+. While Semien’s 7.6 fWAR season earned him a third-place finish in the AL MVP voting, it’s fair to question whether that year was the outlier. He’s never been an All-Star (for what that’s worth), and outside of his galvanizing 2019 campaign, Semien hasn’t posted a wRC+ over 100. Even considering a down 2020, however, he has consistently been between 92 and 98 wRC+. Take that with the potential value he brings on defense, and even if Semien doesn’t re-emerge as an MVP candidate, Toronto has acquired a player with a high floor with potential for more.

Defensively, his glovework has received mixed reviews: subpar numbers by Statcast’s Outs Above Average, but generally more positive numbers in recent years by DRS and UZR. Regardless, moving to second base should secure his glove as a plus asset. Frankly, Semien’s willingness to play second base is a boon for the Blue Jays, who can continue to flex star Bo Bichette at shortstop while moving Cavan Biggio across the diamond to third, as notes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has notably been preparing himself for reps at third base, though he’s more likely start most games at first. That foursome has the potential to form one of the most fearsome infield groups in the game – especially if their homegrown trio continues to grow into their vast potential.

Toronto’s impactful offseason now includes the additions of Semien and George Springer to the lineup, while they have bolstered the bullpen with Kirby Yates and Tyler Chatwood. They also struck early in the offseason to keep Robbie Ray in their rotation. Even after the additions of Springer and Semien (plus Hyun Jin Ryu last winter), their luxury tax payroll is still projected to be around $146M. While that’s miles from the luxury tax line, it does represent an increase from their 2020 payroll, both in terms of the luxury tax count and in real dollars, where their year-over-year payrool has jumped from approximately $118M to $132M.

In terms of value, the Jays have to be thrilled to get a talent like Semien on a one-year deal. MLBTR predicted a one-year, $14M contract for Semien, so he did slightly better in terms of that dollar amount that we projected for him. He should bolster their lineup on both sides of the ball while maintaining long-term flexibility. Toronto has infield prospects Jordan Groshans and Austin Martin who could be ready to join the lineup before long, should the Jays not want to commit long-term money to Semien after 2021. That kind of flexibility has, in some ways, surpassed even raw talent in terms of the value it holds for owners. Not to mention, with Freddy Galvis signing in Baltimore, the pool of free agent shortstops is rapidly shrinking. Andrelton Simmons and Didi Gregorius are now the top options still available in free agency

For Semien, he comes just a touch shy of what he would have made had the A’s extended a qualifying offer. Had Oakland extended the $18.9M qualifying offer, they would have received a draft pick when Semien signed elsewhere, but they were wary of issuing a contract of that size, even on a one-year term. Semien now gets to re-enter free agency next year as part of the stacked class of free agent shortstops that may include Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, and Javier Baez.