MLB best bets: Dodgers vs. Phillies pick, odds, predictions for Tue. 7/9

Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds

Tuesday, July 9, 6:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Los Angeles Dodgers

It's still early, but it surely is looking like the classic "sophomore slump" for Miller. He possesses a fade-worthy 6.12 ERA and 1.60 WHIP through his first six starts this season.

While that is not a massive sample size, his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is highly unlikely. Although the former first round pick does not officially qualify, Miller would rank in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

Following the right-hander is a bullpen that is due for regression. Despite ranking fourth in ERA, Los Angeles' relief staff ranks 20th in FIP and 22nd in xFIP.

Philadelphia Phillies

Meanwhile, Wheeler is currently the front-runner to win the NL Cy Young. He is 9-4 with a commanding 2.74 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.

Wheeler's been particularly dialed in recently, surrendering two or fewer runs in three consecutive starts. He boasts a 2.29 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over that stretch.

Philadelphia won two of those three games, with each of those two wins coming by at least a two-run margin.

The right-hander's analytics suggest that regression is not a concern. He ranks in the 87th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

While Los Angeles' lineup is keeping the Phillies' price low, Wheeler can handle the assignment. He is 2-0 against the Dodgers over the past four meetings with a 2.49 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

Following Wheeler is arguably the league's best bullpen. Philadelphia's relief staff ranks first in both FIP and xFIP.

Dodgers vs. Phillies

Betting Pick & Prediction

At +145, it's worth taking a shot on the Phillies to win this game by at least two runs. The hitting matchup is a wash, considering that both teams rank in the top seven of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.

If the hitting cancels out, then Philadelphia should have no issue taking care of business. Wheeler outranks Miller in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

The Phillies' bullpen also outranks Los Angeles' in both FIP and xFIP. Finally, 22 of Philadelphia's past 25 wins have come by at least a two-run margin.

Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+145 at bet365 | Play to +140)