MLB best bets: Who can stop the Houston Astros in the AL West?

AL West

The Houston Astros have owned the AL West for a while now and we don't see that changing in 2023. Oh, did we give our pick to win the AL West without breaking down each team in the division? Sorry. Spoiler alert, I guess. Seattle was arguably the biggest surprise in all of baseball last year, and the Angels and Rangers should definitely be better than they were last year, but they're not on the same level as Houston. To be honest, it's not all that close either. As for Oakland, they're still the doormat of the league. I guess that sums up the division, but don't worry, we'll give you some more insight on each team. 

Houston Astros

The reigning champs are the reigning champs for a reason. Houston was the best team in baseball last year and the scary thing is they might be even better this year. Losing AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander to the Mets is tough. Being without All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve for at least the first two months of the season after he was hurt in the World Baseball Classic makes things even tougher. But this team has the talent and depth to win this division, and quite possibly repeat as World Series champs.

Replacing Verlander will be the key, but Framber Valdez and Cristan Javier are more than capable of filling that void collectively. And adding Jose Abreu and re-signing Michael Brantley in the offseason, that right there makes an already great Houston lineup even better. This division could be close for a little bit, but once Altuve returns, the Astros (-200) should run away with the AL West once again. Yeah, the line at -200 is far from ideal, but considering how much better Houston is than the rest of the teams in this division, we're surprised it's not closer to -250 or even -300. 

Win total: Houston won 106 games in the regular season last year, and you already know how we feel about 'stros for this year. Yeah, we think they're even better. So, no surprise here, we love Houston to finish with more than 96.5 wins (-110), which is where the over/under is currently at. Yes, the AL West is better than it was last year, but Houston is still the team to beat, and they've won 100 or more games four of the last five seasons (excluding the 2020 pandemic). If for some reason you think Houston makes the playoffs but doesn't win the division, you can bet them to strictly make the playoffs (-1000), but we don't recommend you do that with the line being so low.

Seattle Mariners

Of all the teams in MLB last year, the Mariners were the biggest surprise. Seattle ended its 20-year playoff drought after winning 90 games last year, however, that's done. Gone. Finished. Seattle has put the league on notice and is no longer an underdog. The Mariners have a budding superstar in Julio Rodriguez, one of the best bullpens in baseball and one of the deepest rotations in the American League. Combine that with a lineup that has a solid combination of speed and power and all of a sudden, you're looking at a 90+ win team. Some think last year might have been a fluke but we're not one of them. Seattle isn't going to blow you out of the water, but they find a way to stay in games, and pull away in the later innings by not beating themselves and relying on a bullpen that finished with the sixth-best ERA in MLB.

Win total: Seattle's over/under win total is at 87 and we love the over here (-110). Jared Kelenic has had a disappointing start to his career, but he had a monster spring training, and this might finally be the year he puts it all together. Kelenic is only 23 years old and a former first-round draft pick. If he produces like Seattle hopes, the Mariners are arguably the top Wild Card team in the AL. And no, we didn't forget about Toronto. And of course, don't forget to take Seattle to make the playoffs, too (-170).

Los Angeles Angels

Every year we hear this is the year the Angels make the playoffs, and maybe even make some noise in the postseason. It's understandable, but we're not so sure it's true. Yes, Los Angeles has the two best players in the game in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, but as we've seen over the past few years, you can't win with just two superstars. You need the rest of the guys to produce, and that hasn't happened. In the past it was because the bullpen. And last year the Angels couldn't score runs consistently, especially when Trout went down.

Hate to break it to you, but there's a good chance something else comes up this year. Maybe its injuries — let's face it, Trout has had a hard time staying healthy the last couple of years — or maybe it's the bullpen again, or maybe the defense. Who knows. The point is this team always seems to have expectations to start the season, and then they massively underachieve. So, unlike the rest of the pundits out there, we're not high on the Halos, and we're definitely not putting any money on them to win the AL West. 

Win total: The Angels over/under win total is at 81.5, and as tempting as the over is, we just can't do it (-115). LAA has finished under .500 seven straight years. Let me repeat that — the Angels have finished under .500 for seven straight years. Considering Trout has been the best player in the game for the last five years, that's hard to imagine. Sad but true though. Seven years isn't exactly a small sample size, and that's the main reason why we're taking the Halos to finish no better than .500. Expect this to be a close cover, but the Angels cannot be trusted. Every year they find a way to underachieve, and we don't see this year being any different. As for the postseason, we don't see that happening either (-220).

Texas Rangers

Similar to the Twins, the Rangers can hit. The problem is the pitching just hasn't done enough in years past to help them win consistently. But that might not be the case anymore. The Rangers knew they needed to bring in some fresh faces if they're going to contend, and they did just that. Obviously, Jacob deGrom was the biggest and most important signing, but the Rangers also signed starters Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi and high-leverage relievers Matt Moore and Ian Kennedy. If those guys perform like they have in the past, Texas' pitching should be OK. People forget the Rangers' bullpen finished with the 12th-best ERA in baseball, and they didn't just add one key bullpen arm over the winter, they added two. Every year one team takes a huge step forward, and that team for us this year is Texas.

Win total: As tempting as it may be to bet on Texas to win the AL West at 11/1, it's just not worth it. However, you should put money on Texas to go over (-11) its 81.5 set win total and make the playoffs (+195) too. But in order for both to happen, three guys need to step up, and stay healthy. DeGrom must stay healthy, and that's a big if considering his track record. And both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien must have bounce-back seasons in 2023. If those things happen, Texas should be good, and surprise a ton of people. 

Oakland Athletics

There's no way of sugarcoating it: The A's sucked last year. They were by far and away the worst team in the American League, and we're not so sure that isn't the case again this year. Until the A's find a new stadium, don't expect much from Oakland. No one really goes to their games and the team refuses to spend any serious money on its on-field product. Who knows when that will change but until then, keep your expectations low. This team lacks talent more than anything, and that's a problem. 

Win total: Oakland is pretty much a lock to lose 100 games again this year, so take the under on their win total of 59.5 wins (-110). The A's are also likely to be sellers at the deadline, so even if they're around .500 to start the year, don't expect that to stick. Management knows this team is still in a full rebuild, and the A's philosophy has always been to sell high, even if it hurts you in the short term.