Back for another MLB parlay as baseball resumes from the All-Star break. Our last write-up on July 9th was again a banger, making it four parlay hits since June 28. That brings our season record to 44-32 ATS. Our followers know we target games seeing respected money and, more precisely, reverse line movements. We have another three selections on tap for you, along with some additional leans that we like based on the line movement. The betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.
Leading off today’s MLB parlay is the Philadelphia Phillies’ team total over 4.5 runs. Philadelphia is the biggest chalk on tonight’s MLB betting slate, and you know we love to target the team total of heavy favorites. The Phillies enter tonight’s contest versus the Angels, averaging nearly five runs per game in their last six at home. Los Angeles scheduled starter Ryan Zeferjahn brings a 5.66 ERA into tonight’s road start. In addition, the Angels allowed over seven runs per game in their last seven contests before the All-Star break. We like the probability here of the Phillies plating the necessary five runs to cover. The Phillies team total over 4.5 runs for play number one!
The middle leg will be the Texas Rangers over the Detroit Tigers. We spotted our staple reverse line movement here in this one. Texas is seeing just 30% of the money bets and has moved from a +119 underdog to an even -108. The Rangers are both 6-4 SU in their last 10 games as an underdog and against the Tigers. They are also a profitable 6-4 SU in their last 10 games as an underdog versus the Tigers. We will follow the sharps here and take the Texas Rangers on the moneyline for play number two!
Closing out tonight’s MLB parlay is the Miami Marlins over the Kansas City Royals. We spotted another reverse line movement, with the sharps backing Miami. The Marlins despite seeing just 38% of the money have moved from a +123 underdog down to -102. Miami is 6-4 SU in their last 10 as an underdog, won three straight at home versus Kansas City and four of five. We again will back the sharps and take the Miami Marlins on the moneyline for play number three!
Additional Leans: Nationals ML, Reds ML, Twins/Rockies alternate total over 10.5
The beauty of our MLB parlays is that we can provide our followers with three individual plays. We will play these picks SU because the hit rate on a three-team parlay is about 6-1, not a long-term profitable betting strategy. Hitting on the parlay is simply icing on the cake. We avoid public plays, which tend to be the betting favorites. Please follow us on X and Facebook as the MLB season continues toward the Fall Classic. Let’s keep stacking the winning days and get you three winners. And remember: Follow or Fade!
*Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook and Subject to Change*
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