Nationals Starting Pitcher Is Having Far Better Year Than ERA Indicates

The Washington Nationals have been having pitching trouble in many aspects this year, and it appears to be clogging their potential.

It's no secret that MacKenzie Gore is having an outstanding season that deserves a lot of recognition, but he simply hasn't had the supporting case to make his elite strike-throwing numbers feel worthwhile.

There's been some less-than-impressive outings from other pitchers like Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams, and Michael Soroka.

On the surface, Mitchell Parker seems to be lumped into that group, too, with his not terrible but not amazing 3.97 ERA. But when diving into his numbers, he should be viewed as the clear second-best pitcher on the roster.

When analyzing Parker's page on Baseball Savant, his Barrel% is in the 92nd percentile, meaning he does not get hit hard when batters make contact.

This stat is incredibly important in minimizing blowup innings.

Parker's downside is that he does not get people to swing and miss. He also walks a ton of people which puts him in danger of loading up the bases. His 1.30 WHIP has helped him stay out of too much trouble, but those metrics would explain why his ballooned xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) is at 5.40.

When looking at his actual FIP, though, it would take his ERA down from 3.97 to 3.91, indicating a little bit of bad luck with the Nationals defense behind him.

That checks out.

Savant uses Outs Above Average as their primary defensive metric, and when looking at the infield, CJ Abrams finds himself in the fifth percentile and Luis Garcia Jr. in the seventh percentile. Jose Tena is in the 63rd percentile, but his metrics don't even fully register from his small sample size.

Parker's arsenal is overall positive, too, with his Splitter being especially valuable at 2.32 runs above average per 100 pitches according to FanGraphs.

So, while the left-hander doesn't necessarily jump off the page when looking at his raw numbers, he is having a much better year than what his stats suggest.

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