Orioles vs. Dodgers prediction, picks, odds for Wed. 8/28

Orioles vs. Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers

Kenny Ducey’s Orioles vs. Dodgers Preview

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Corbin Burnes Scuffling

We need to have a discussion about Burnes.

Things have taken a turn for the worse this month as he's posted an 8.71 ERA through four starts. He's walked five across his last two outings, and while his rate of free passes for the season is a very good one, we've seen these issues creep in sporadically over the last four months — not a huge surprise considering he's had issues with walks as recently as last season.

Burnes hasn't been a dominant strikeout arm this year, which is foreign to those who have appreciated him over the course of his career. His whiff rate is down to a season-worst 21.4% this month and his punchout rate has come down with it to a lowly 18.6%.

That's put an onus on him to generate outs on contact, and with a depressed ground-ball rate and a spike in hard-hit balls, his Expected Batting Average (xBA) has come all the way up to .283 in August after sitting down around .220 for the season. His Expected Slugging (xSLG), too, is way up to .450.

The Orioles offense has also lacked the bite it had earlier in the year. They've stopped hitting for power and have been experiencing a rise in strikeouts — and in the last week these issues have only become more glaring as they've scored 19 runs in six games, sporting a .130 Isolated Power (ISO) with a 26.7% strikeout rate.

Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Healthy Dodgers Power Up

The Dodgers, on the other hand, seem to be back to themselves offensively. They're now completely healthy with Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Tommy Edman and Miguel Rojas returning from injury — over the last week of play they've owned a spicy .202 ISO around a surprisingly low .239 batting average.

L.A. did have a momentary issue with striking out during the heart of the summer, but the good news is that that issue seems to be a thing of the past. This historically patient team could certainly do with more walks, however, and is still drawing one in just 7.1% of plate appearances over the last week.

As for Buehler, well, his biggest issue has ironically come in the walk department. He's issued seven free passes in two starts back off the injured list, and while he hasn't been hit overly hard, those have made life incredibly difficult and run up his pitch count. He's totaled just 7 1/3 innings in two outings this month, allowing six runs on 11 hits with just one home run against him.

One thing that may help against Baltimore is Buehler's increasing ground-ball rate, which has hit 50% through his two turns through the rotation in August. That's helped his xBA stabilize a bit, but it remains poor and his xSLG stands at .493 this month and .470 for the season.

Orioles vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis

If Buehler can continue rolling balls up on the ground, this one could get interesting. Baltimore not only ranks just 18th in OPS to ground-ball pitchers but will hit them at a Dodgers infield that's ranked third in Outs Above Average this month after a mediocre start to the year. The Orioles remain firm in their ability to work walks, however, and that is one potential issue to watch here.

Still, Buehler has seemed to rein in his issues with home runs and with more balls coming back on the ground, he should have a fair chance of capitalizing on getting one of the best offenses in baseball during a down period.

Burnes, on the other hand, is in trouble. The Dodgers should expose his issues on contact, and despite the low walk rate in a small sample they've proven to be the most patient team in the league over the last three years and should compound the mistakes made by the right-hander as he slogs through his worst month of the year.

I like the Dodgers here in a pick 'em at home.

Pick: Dodgers -110

Moneyline

The Dodgers opened up as slim home favorites against Burnes at around -118 but have steadily fallen during the betting window down to -110 as we speak now. We've tracked sharp action hitting the Orioles here, but L.A. has accounted for a whopping 95% of the cash to 75% of the bets.

Run Line (Spread)

The Dodgers have now covered the run line in three of their last four games, while Baltimore is 3-2 over its last five. L.A. stands at just 35-31 to the run line at home, though it is one of the best marks in the big leagues, while the Orioles are 37-27 against the spread on the road. They're also 7-3 against the spread when you zoom out to include the last 10 games.

Over/Under

The Orioles have gone 7-3 to the Under over the last 10 games while the Dodgers have hit the Over just four times during that time. As favorites, L.A. is 61-50-3 to the Over and stands 37-27-2 to the Over at home this season.

The sharp money has hit the Under according to our signals, and after the price on the Over 8.5 steadily moved up to begin the betting window, it's come down early on Wednesday.

About the Author

Kenny Ducey, a leading voice in tennis betting and MLB handicapping, has built an online following through his work for Tennis Channel and his background in baseball reporting for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. With over a decade of experience, including covering the New York Knicks and Yankees for Fordham's WFUV Radio, Ducey writes betting previews for The Action Network and contributes digitally to Tennis Channel, having also worked for NBC Sports and DraftKings.

Follow Kenny Ducey @kennyducey on Twitter/X.