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Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal celebrates striking out Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh in the sixth inning of ALDS Game 5 at T-Mobile Park in Seattle on Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tarik Skubal's Projected Price Would Be Perfect For Red Sox

Originally posted on Boston Red Sox on SI
By Patrick McAvoy | Last updated Oct 31, 2025 11:00 AM ET

Imagine a starting rotation for the Boston Red Sox including both Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal?

It's certainly a fun thought and is an idea that has already been speculated about this offseason because of the fact that reports have surfaced -- including from Jon Heyman of the New York Post -- that Skubal and Detroit have had a "massive gap" in conversations about a new deal. Skubal is under team control for just one more season and is making himself a lot of money right now. He won the 2024 American League Cy Young Award and is the favorite to win the 2025 award as well after leading the league in ERA for the second straight year.

With Skubal seemingly a year away from a historic deal, rumors have popped up -- including from MLB.com's Mark Feinsand -- throughout the offseason about the idea of a Skubal trade. In no world should a contender like Detroit trade arguably the best pitcher in baseball. But, that's besides the point. If Detroit makes him available for some reason, what could a deal cost for Boston?

The Athletic's Red Sox insider Jen McCaffrey addressed this very question and the answer arguably would be perfect for Boston.

"A deal for Skubal most likely starts with Payton Tolle or Connelly Early, in addition to a top young hitter or two," McCaffrey said. "Roman Anthony is all but off the table. The Tigers might want Marcelo Mayer (even as a lefty hitter), but it seems more likely the Red Sox would offer Double-A shortstop Franklin Arias or Triple-A outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia, both top 50 in baseball and top 10 prospects in the Red Sox system. The Tigers may also be interested in Jarren Duran (despite being another lefty), given he’s a proven big leaguer, despite a less productive season compared to his breakout 2024...

The Red Sox should do everything possible to get Tarik Skubal

"Moreover, as a Scott Boras client, many predict that if he’s traded this winter, he wouldn’t sign an extension with his new team, preferring to enter free agency next winter, when he could fetch $400 million. However, a potential MLB lockout does complicate that scenario a bit. Regardless, I think a Skubal trade at the least starts with Tolle and/or Early, Duran and possibly Garcia or ( Franklin Arias). The Red Sox would have to be fairly confident they can sign Skubal to an extension if they gave up that kind of haul."

Let's break this down:
This isn't McCaffrey saying a deal is coming, but this is one of the team's top insiders talking about the idea and what it could cost, which is newsworthy in itself. But, if this is the type of deal that could get something done, it's worth exploring. A deal including Duran, either Early or Tolle, and Garcia or Arias is a lot. Duran is an All-Star outfielder with a few years of control. Tolle is Boston's No. 2 prospect and Early is the No. 6 prospect. Both showed flashes in the big leagues significantly earlier than expected in 2025, including Early starting a playoff game against the New York Yankees.

Arias is actually the Red Sox's current No. 1 prospect and Garcia is the team's No. 3 prospect. So, essentially, it sounds like to get the best pitcher in baseball it could take an All-Star-level talent under control already in the big leagues, and two top-tier prospects.

For Boston, this makes sense no matter how you combine the package. Duran is someone who has been in trade rumors for a year. They shouldn't just give him away, obviously. But, if Boston is actually willing to move him, trying to send him to Detroit for a hurler like Skubal would be the perfect way to do so. Again, there's no reason to just move him. But, if the Red Sox are willing to trade an outfielder for a high-end starter, there is no one better than Skubal.

Early and Tolle are both exciting prospects, but Skubal already is that guy. If you can cut ties with just one of the hurlers, in the long run the Boston rotation would be just fine with Crochet, Skubal, Brayan Bello, and either of the two hurlers with the other in Detroit. It would be sad to see either go, but Skubal would fill in for them admirably.

For Garcia and Arias, although they are both high-end prospects, the Red Sox are loaded in the outfield -- which hurts Garcia -- and there are plenty of infielders as well -- especially if Alex Bregman and Trevor Story stick around.

Skubal is due for a massive contract and the Red Sox did trade Rafael Devers away and freed up some long-term cash. Trying to get a deal like this and putting a pile of money on the table for Skubal is a pipe dream, but one that would be perfect.