Were Rangers Too Risky With Draft Strategy of Grabbing Injured Pitchers?

It’s clear that pitching was an emphasis for the Texas Rangers in this year's MLB draft, with 65% of their picks coming at that position.

The Rangers selected 13 pitchers, including three in the first five rounds.

Unfortunately, all three of those prospects have had recent Tommy John surgeries: Tennessee right-hander AJ Russell, Nebraska righty Mason McConnaughey and TCU lefty Ben Abeldt.

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Keith Law of The Athletic (subscription required) recently released his analysis of the AL West’s draft classes.

While Law wasn’t enamored by most of Texas’ later-round selections, he was, however, high on two of those three recovering pitchers—despite the risks associated.

“I really like what the Rangers did in the first four rounds, although after that they lost me a little,” Law wrote.

They selected AJ Russell No. 52 overall in the second round.

Russell had an impressive recovery from Tommy John surgery, returning just eight and a half months later, where, according to Law, he hit 97 mph in his first game back.

“The Vols used him cautiously all spring, giving him 25 1/3 innings in controlled outings, and he sat 92-95 with a 55 slider,” Law wrote. “He has a starter’s delivery and the chance for two plus pitches, assuming he can hold up physically and get back to average control.”

The Rangers drafted their next pitcher in the fourth round, selecting Mason McConnaughey No. 115 overall.

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McConnaughey had an impressive 2024 campaign for the Huskers, going 9-3 with a 3.45 ERA and 91 strikeouts to 24 walks in 73 innings pitched.

He only had three starts this spring before he blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery in March.

“He has a good delivery and above-average control of a three-pitch mix, with a 45 fastball but a slider and changeup that might be 55s,” Law wrote.

Texas then took Ben Abeldt in the fifth round at No. 146 overall, which is where Law became a bit skeptical of the organization’s strategy.

Abeldt impressed in 2024, posting a 1.83 ERA with 54 strikeouts to 16 walks in 44.1 innings pitched.

He then missed the entire 2025 campaign after tearing his UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery in February.

“In this case, I’m not surprised he got hurt — he comes so far across his body, the ball passes through three time zones before it sees the plate,” Law wrote. “He was up to 98, pitching more at 92-94, and didn’t have an average second pitch, occasionally throwing a long, sweepy slider.”

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If the Rangers can work on his delivery, Abeldt was promising in two seasons for TCU.

For some teams, the number of Tommy John recoveries in their prospect farm system might be alarming.

Texas has successfully rehabbed Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle this year, and their team physician, Dr. Keith Meister, is a leading Tommy John surgeon for MLB players.

The number of pitchers requiring that surgery spiked 29% from 2016 to 2023, according to USA Today. It also has a strong recovery rate.

So perhaps the Rangers are embracing the unavoidable upfront and is well-positioned to handle those recoveries.

For more Rangers news, head over to Rangers On SI.