Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones prediction, odds, pick for UFC Iowa

UFC Iowa: Cory Sandhagen versus Deiveson Figueiredo kicks off the main card with a fight between Jeremy Stephens and Mason Jones in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Stephens-Jones prediction and pick.

Jeremy Stephens (29-21, 1 NC) returns to the UFC after a successful stint in bare-knuckle boxing, highlighted by a third-round TKO win over Eddie Alvarez at BKFC KnuckleMania 5. Previously, Stephens went 1-2 in the PFL, including a submission loss to Natan Schulte. Now, he faces Mason Jones in his hometown at UFC Iowa.

Mason Jones (15-2, 1 NC) returns to the UFC riding a four-fight win streak in Cage Warriors, most recently outpointing Michael Pagani and earning back-to-back TKO finishes over Bryce Logan and Yann Liasse. Now, Jones looks to continue his momentum and make a statement against Jeremy Stephens at UFC Iowa.

Here are the UFC Iowa Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Iowa Odds: Jeremy Stephens-Mason Jones Odds

Jeremy Stephens: +425

Mason Jones: -575

Over 2.5 rounds: +100

Under 2.5 rounds: -130

Why Jeremy Stephens Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Natan Schulte – SUB R2
• Last 5: 1-4 (MMA) 3-1-1 (BKFC/Boxing)
• Finishes: 21 (18 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Jeremy Stephens’ return to the UFC in his hometown of Des Moines, Iowa, could be the perfect storm for a vintage “Lil Heathen” performance against Mason Jones. Stephens, one of the most experienced and dangerous punchers in the division, boasts 19 career knockouts and is tied for the second-most knockdowns in UFC history, a testament to his fight-ending power and relentless pressure. After revitalizing his career with a string of bare-knuckle boxing wins, including a devastating stoppage of Eddie Alvarez, Stephens enters this bout brimming with confidence and momentum.

Stylistically, Stephens thrives in high-paced brawls, using explosive combinations, punishing leg kicks, and a well-timed left hook to break opponents down. His ability to push forward and turn fights into gritty, close-quarters battles could neutralize Jones’ technical approach and force mistakes. Stephens’ wrestling, often underrated, can also keep the fight standing and allow him to dictate the action. Fighting in front of a home crowd, with renewed motivation and a chip on his shoulder, Stephens has the tools and the intangibles to overwhelm Jones, land the bigger shots, and secure a dramatic knockout or hard-fought decision win at UFC Iowa.

Why Mason Jones Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Michael Pagani – DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 10 (7 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Mason Jones is primed to spoil Jeremy Stephens’ homecoming at UFC Iowa, thanks to his youth, volume striking, and well-rounded skill set. Jones, a former two-division Cage Warriors champion, has sharpened his game since his first UFC stint, returning on a four-fight win streak and eager to prove he belongs among the lightweight elite. Statistically, Jones lands 5.61 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy, far outpacing Stephens’ 3.17 per minute, and uses his 74-inch reach to control range and tempo. His ability to mix in kicks, elbows, and varied combinations will keep Stephens guessing and limit the veteran’s opportunities to land his trademark power shots.

Defensively, Jones boasts an 80% takedown defense rate and a 45% takedown accuracy, giving him the tools to dictate where the fight takes place. While Stephens remains dangerous, his recent MMA run saw just one win in nine fights, and he’s now 38, facing a younger, hungrier opponent. Jones’ relentless pace, improved fight IQ, and willingness to embrace the role of the “villain” on hostile turf should allow him to outwork Stephens over three rounds, potentially earning a late stoppage or dominant decision to reestablish himself in the UFC lightweight division.

Final Jeremy Stephens-Mason Jones Prediction & Pick

Mason Jones vs. Jeremy Stephens at UFC Iowa is a compelling crossroads fight, pitting a surging, well-rounded contender against a battle-tested veteran returning to his hometown. Jones enters as a clear favorite, riding a four-fight win streak and boasting statistical advantages in both striking and grappling. He lands 5.61 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy, compared to Stephens’ 3.17 at 40%, and has a notable edge in takedown defense and offensive wrestling. Analysts widely expect Jones to be the fresher, faster fighter, using his volume, reach, and improved fight IQ to dictate the pace and keep Stephens on the back foot.

Stephens’ legendary knockout power and experience make him dangerous, especially with the energy of the Iowa crowd behind him. However, his recent MMA record and age suggest his best days may be behind him, while Jones appears to be entering his prime. Expect a high-paced, action-packed bout with Jones mixing striking and takedowns to wear down Stephens, ultimately earning a clear decision or late stoppage and announcing himself as a serious player in the UFC lightweight division.

Final Jeremy Stephens-Mason Jones Prediction & Pick: Mason Jones (-575), Over 2.5 Rounds (+100)