Daytona 500 preview: Three to watch, one to avoid

UPDATE: The Daytona 500 has been postponed until Monday at 4 p.m. ET. The official statement from NASCAR:

"Due to inclement weather, NASCAR today announced that Sunday's Daytona 500 has been postponed until Monday at 4 p.m. ET. The Daytona 500 now joins the NASCAR Xfinity Series race (11 a.m. ET) on Monday, creating the first-ever Monday doubleheader at Daytona International Speedway."

The 500 is anyone's race, though, so let's take a look at three drivers — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — who may be your best bets, as well as one driver who may not be. (Odds per DraftKings as of Friday.)

Favorite: Kyle Busch (+1200)

If you're superstitious, here's some numerology for you: Busch drives for Richard Childress Racing, the same team Dale Earnhardt famously drove for throughout most of his career. Earnhardt's only Daytona 500 victory came in 1998, in his 20th try. 

2024 will be the 19th appearance in the "Great American Race" for Busch, who also seeks his first Daytona 500 win. It's really his 20th attempt, though, because he withdrew from the 2015 event due to a leg injury after having already competed in his qualifying race.

As of Friday afternoon, Busch was tied for the fifth-best odds, per DraftKings, in large part because he was leading at the end of the scheduled distance a year ago before the race went to extra laps after a late caution.

So let's call it right here: this time, "Rowdy" finishes the job.

Contender: Chris Buescher (+1800)

What's more Bu(e)sch than Busch? That would be Buesch-er, who is the most recent points race winner at Daytona and always seems to be a threat on the superspeedways. His teammate and co-owner, Brad Keselowski, tends to get more attention at Daytona given his storied career on this track type. Buescher, however, is the better driver now and his odds seem like a bargain.

As long as he can avoid trouble — something he is good at doing — Buescher should find himself right in the mix Sunday night.

Dark horse: Jimmie Johnson (+6000)

Sure, let's get crazy. Wouldn't it be something if Johnson, the seven-time Cup Series champion who is now back in NASCAR on a part-time basis, won his third Daytona 500? For his first win at any track since 2017? While driving for Legacy Motor Club, a team he co-owns? In his first Cup race in a Toyota?

It could happen. Johnson had to race his way into the event through the Duels on Thursday and just barely did so, passing J.J. Yeley on the final lap. However, he'd have been much farther ahead of Yeley had he not suffered crash damage from earlier on, and the Toyotas are clearly fast as they swept both Duels.

Johnson's odds are inexplicably greater than drivers such as Noah Gragson, Harrison Burton and Corey LaJoie. 

Avoid: Denny Hamlin (+1000)

Hamlin always seems to be the de facto favorite whenever NASCAR comes to Daytona, and this year is no exception as he's tied for the second-best odds. He's a three-time 500 winner, and he already has momentum going for him, winning the exhibition Clash and then leading on the last lap in his Duel race before teammate Bell passed him.

However, given the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing, there's no such thing as a safe bet. The odds of Hamlin — or of any driver, for that matter — getting taken out in an accident are probably likelier than the odds he'll win, so don't waste your money on the chalk pick.