This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Charlotte Motor Speedway. The odds for this weekend’s Roval race are interesting. With a little bit of a wrinkle in the NASCAR Playoff picture, are we going to see a split championship this season? And who is going to get eliminated?
After Talladega, Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, and Kyle Busch all find themselves under the cutline. Only eight drivers can make the next round. However, only Busch is in “must-win” territory. Theoretically, he could point his way in. He just needs four to five other playoff drivers to have terrible races.
None of these bottom four drivers are the favorite. That honor, from BetMGM, goes to Chase Elliott. At 6-1 odds, Elliott could win his way into the next round of the owners’ championship. He looks good on points right now, he’s fifth overall in that playoff race. Elliott wouldn’t be winning a championship, the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team would, but it’d be cool.
Hendrick teammate William Byron is at 13-2 odds and looks to be the championship favorite right now. P2 last week at Talladega. He won at Texas – what’s stopping him from winning again?
Reddick is the third favorite for the Roval odds. At 7-1 odds, the 23XI Racing driver doesn’t need a win but needs a good race. He should be in contention if his car comes off the trailer with some speed.
The other playoff drivers in the odds are Kyle Larson 9-1, Martin Truex Jr. 12-1, Kyle Busch 16-1, Denny Hamlin 18-1, Christopher Bell 18-1, Chris Buescher 22-1, Ross Chastain 28-1, Ryan Blaney 28-1, Brad Keselowski 65-1, and Bubba Wallace 100-1.
Roval odds on the elimination line
Coming into the Roval, a DNF will doom everyone except maybe Denny Hamlin. If any of these NASCAR Playoff drivers find themselves out in the first stage, call it quits. They will almost assuredly be eliminated after this race.
The margins are so small right now. Reddick, -2 points to Brad Keselowski in 8th right now. Wallace is nine points back, Chastain 10 points, and Busch 26.
Let’s not forget that Wallace, although he struggles on road courses, finished in the top-10 here a year ago. The Roval offers chances for teams to switch tire strategy and maybe steal a spot at the end.
Realistically, this is probably the end of the road for Wallace, Busch, Chastain, and perhaps… Kyle Larson? Larson is 13 points above the cutline, but he has 7 DNFs on the year. The Roval is a tricky course, and I think his habit of aggressive driving will cost him.
If Larson keeps it on the track, I think his Roval odds are really good, actually. It’s the playoffs, I’m sure we’ll get one or two surprises before everything is said and done.
More must-reads: