Three to watch, one to avoid for NASCAR in Food City 500

The NASCAR Cup Series continues at the Food City 500 on Sunday, marking the first time Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway has held its spring race on concrete since 2020.

Here are three drivers — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — who you might want to consider trusting your money with, as well as one who you probably don't.

Favorite: Kyle Larson (+500, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

Let's not overthink this: Larson is the best driver at Bristol, and he's overdue for another win at the track. Somehow he's only won once at Bristol, in the fall of 2021, but he has led in eight of his past nine races on concrete at the track and 870 laps total. 

Larson was runner-up at Bristol last September, his third time finishing second there, and this time around he'll be one spot better. His odds trail only Denny Hamlin's.

Contender: Ty Gibbs (+1200)

Even though he has never won a Cup race, Gibbs is far from a dark horse. His odds (tied for seventh best) and points position (tied for fifth) disqualify him from being considered a long shot. Gibbs is fresh off his career-best finish, a third at Phoenix, and last fall at Bristol, he had his breakout performance in the Cup Series as he led 102 laps. The NASCAR world could well be in for a first-time winner this weekend ...

Dark horse: Carson Hocevar (+8000)

...and Gibbs isn't the only candidate there. Hocevar is a major long shot, but lest we forget the run he had at Bristol last fall. He ran inside the top 10 for much of the race before finishing 11th in only his fourth Cup Series start. In that race, Corey LaJoie led 48 laps while driving for the same Spire Motorsports team that Hocevar now drives for.

That's a solid recipe for a potential stunner Sunday. Hocevar's odds are the best value in the field, so if you want a shot at a massive payout, hammer the money on the 21-year-old rookie.

Avoid: Martin Truex Jr. (+1800)

One may see Truex's and think he's worth solid value considering his record on shorter tracks and strong start to the 2024 season. (He might have won last week at Phoenix had it not been for a botched strategy call on the final pit stop.) However, Truex is not good at Bristol, with no wins, only four top-10s and 287 laps led there in 33 career races on concrete.

It's strange given that Dover, which is in many ways like a bigger version of Bristol, is quite arguably Truex's best track, but he has never raced well at NASCAR's Coliseum. Don't expect that to suddenly change for him.