10 bold predictions for the 2024 NBA playoffs
The NBA playoffs begin on Saturday. Let's take a look at some bold predictions for the NBA's long postseason tournament.
1. The Denver Nuggets will repeat as champions
There are reasons to be skeptical of the Denver Nuggets. They're not as deep as last year's title team. They're an injury risk, with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. both making Nuggets fans gasp any time they have a collision or a hard fall.
But they still have the league's likely MVP in Nikola Jokic and the league's best one-two punch with Jokic and Murray. Last year, the Nuggets went 16-4 in the playoffs. That included a 10-1 record at home, where Denver owns the league's best natural home-court advantage: Altitude.
It's a tougher road than last season, though, with the Nuggets facing a gauntlet that might include LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the potent young Oklahoma City Thunder, all for the right to take on a juggernaut Boston Celtics team in the Finals. But we still don't think any team finds an answer to Jokic in a seven-game series and the Nuggets take home the Larry O'Brien trophy again.
2. The Boston Celtics roll through the Eastern Conference
People have overestimated the Boston Celtics before, even as recently as last season when they lost to a No. 8 seed (the Miami Heat) in the conference finals. But the Celtics have never had their path cleared to the degree they have this season – due to a combination of injuries, the playoff bracket and some bizarre end-of-season tanking.
Boston has the best offensive rating in the NBA and the third-best defensive rating, thanks to adding Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to a team that was second in offense and third in defense last year. But they'll also face a first-round matchup with either the Miami Heat (likely missing Jimmy Butler) or a 39-win Chicago Bulls team that they beat three times this season. In the next round, it's the young Orlando Magic or the Cleveland Cavaliers, who inexplicably tanked their last game of the season – Boston is 2-1 against each of those clubs.
Elsewhere around the bracket, Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid is still getting back in shape after an injury absence, the New York Knicks won't have All-Star Julius Randle and not only is Giannis Antetokounmpo hurt, the Milwaukee Bucks are coached by Doc Rivers. If the Celtics don't return to the Finals it will be a huge disappointment.
3. The Phoenix Suns are most likely to pull a first-round upset
After a great year for the Minnesota Timberwolves, they drew a terrible first-round matchup with the No. 6-seeded Phoenix Suns. Minnesota finished seven games ahead of Phoenix, but since Christmas Day, the Suns are 35-18 and the Wolves are 34-20. Not coincidentally, that's the time period when the Suns finally got their Big Three of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker back.
Speaking of Booker, he has a lifetime record of 11-1 against his Minnesota counterpart, Anthony Edwards.
The Timberwolves had an excellent regular-season defense anchored by Rudy Gobert. But Gobert's teams have a history of falling apart defensively in the playoffs. Against an outfit like the Suns with lots of shooting. Minnesota could be in trouble.
4. Darvin Ham will be the only playoff coach fired
Last season, the Bucks, 76ers and Suns all hired new head coaches after losing in the playoffs. This year, there's only going to be one coach headed to the unemployment line: Darvin Ham of the Los Angeles Lakers.
Ham's Lakers won their way to the No. 7 seed and were rewarded by a rematch with the team that swept them in last year's conference finals – and this year's regular-season series. Ham has already been criticized for his rotations and player management. Another loss to Denver will doom him.
5. Villanova players will knock out the Sixers
Joel Embiid is a fantastic defender, but especially coming off a knee injury, he's vulnerable to the mid-range game and floaters. That's perfect for floater maestro Jalen Brunson, who can feast if Embiid plays the deep drop coverage he prefers. The Knicks also can exploit Embiid's bad knee by running hard in transition, thanks to the rebounding and speed of Brunson's former Villanova teammate Josh Hart, while Wildcat Donte DiVincenzo has become deadly from three-point range.
That trio of players of New York's best option to force Philly out of their usual defense – and out of the playoffs.
6. The Thunder's offense will struggle
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had an MVP-caliber season, but one notable part of his game declined after the All-Star break: Free throws. SGA was attempting 9.1 free throws per game early in the season, but post-break, that's dropped to 7.7. It could be the result of the NBA's new emphasis on preventing "foul-hunting," something the Oklahoma City guard has occasionally been guilty of.
It's more difficult to draw foul calls in the playoffs, but Gilgeous-Alexander is looking at a tough defensive matchup in the second round. He'll face either the Dallas Mavericks or Los Angeles Clippers, who have both held him below his scoring average (22 PPG and 27 PPG respectively). They've also held him to eight free throws or fewer per game in their respective matchups this season.
7. Injuries will be an enormous factor
Player injuries are already affecting the play-in tournament, with both Jimmy Butler and Zion Williamson suffering injuries in their respective conference's 7-8 games. Questions abound about the health of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard and Joel Embiid, while Anthony Davis is always an injury concern. Throw in the banged-up Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Haliburton and even Celtics guards Derrick White and Jrue Holiday and it looks like the playoff MVP could well be a team trainer.
8. Luka Doncic will finally get past the Clippers
The Mavericks superstar has put up big numbers against the Clippers in the playoffs before, but he has never been able to win a series. This is the year that changes.
Doncic averaged over 35 points per game in a seven-game series loss to the Clippers in 2021, along with 10.3 assists. In 2020, he scored 42 points in the first game and also had a 43-point, 17-rebound, 13-assists game in Game Four as the Mavericks lost in six. But this year Doncic has a great sidekick in Kyrie Irving and a legitimate defense after Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington joined the team via midseason trades. Expect lower scoring numbers but bigger assists as Dallas finally takes down Los Angeles in the first round.
9. This will be Donovan Mitchell's last postseason with the Cavaliers
Cleveland may have a winnable first-round matchup with the Orlando Magic, but the way they ended the season was discouraging for their future. During a season in which they went 17-1 for a 40-day stretch, they closed the season going 7-12 and looking out of sorts. Mitchell has one year remaining on his contract and won't commit to an extension with Cleveland – granted, he can make more money becoming an unrestricted free agent.
But if the Cavs lose in the first round or get demolished by the Celtics in round two, it's hard to imagine Mitchell and Cleveland recommitting for another half-decade. If that's the case, Mitchell could get moved this summer before he leaves for nothing.
10. Doc Rivers will blame someone else when the Bucks lose
We don't know if the Pacers will continue to dominate the Milwaukee Bucks in the playoffs, but it's clear that this Bucks team doesn't look like a title contender. Especially with the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo up in the air.
We also know that after blaming everyone from the travel staff to the equipment manager for Milwaukee's struggles, Rivers won't hesitate to point the finger at everyone but himself. With the explosive Pacers lurking, that could happen as early as the first round.
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