Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 3 odds and best bet

Golden State took care of business winning both games at home to start the series. Now it is on the Mavericks to get back into it the way they did against Phoenix. Can they really come back all the way again though?

In Game 2, we saw a totally different kind of game in the Warriors' win. They were down 14 points at halftime but battled back to win by 9. It was very impressive, especially given how little a factor Draymond Green was before fouling out. He was just totally off his game. 

The Warriors also showed some versatility we didn't really know they had before. Big man Kevon Looney set a career-high in scoring in addition to playing lock-down defense. 

In the Game 2 loss, the combination of Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson scored more than half of Dallas' points. It was nice to see Brunson offer some real support, but Dallas is still struggling to get a total team effort. That is the kind of thing that should be easier to find at home. 

The question is whether it is enough to save the series. 

Game info

Golden State Warriors (2-0) vs. Dallas Mavericks (0-2)
Sunday, May 22, 2022
9 p.m. ET
American Airlines Arena, Dallas, Texas
TNT

Betting odds

Spread: Warriors +2.5 (-110), Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
Total: 218.5
Moneyline: Warriors +120, Mavericks -140

Best bet

Golden State  +2.5

I am very tempted to go with the Moneyline tonight as I think Golden State is going to make quick work in this series and win it, in five games at the most. We are seeing a pretty big swing in the number with the venue change. 

It is not that Dallas is a bad team, but some teams match up better with each other than others, and this has been a bad matchup for the Mavs. Validated by the outcomes too. 

The Warriors just have so many long-wing defenders they can throw at Doncic, and even though he was much better in Game 2 than in Game 1, he is really working hard out there. That is not going to change. 

Golden State also discovered a new wrinkle in Game 2 with Looney scoring a career-high 21 points. He probably doesn't repeat that, but the threat of him as a scorer makes it that much easier for all of his teammates.

I am not expecting a repeat performance of that, but I am also not expecting Green to be a zero either. The balance there probably puts the Dubs  right where we thought they would be. Green wasn't himself early in Game 2 and just couldn't reign it in. I am looking for a more normal contribution from him in Game 3, and he should be unmoved by what is going to be a good environment in Dallas.

I think the same can be expected of the likes of veterans Steph Curry and Klay Thompson too. Curry showed just how good he still is, and as long as he is making shots, the Warriors are never out of a game. 

I think Game 3 is likely to mirror the last one quite a bit, with Dallas coming out very strong and building an early lead, hoping to bury the Warriors early (something that often happens when a team is up 2-0). 

The challenge against Golden State is putting them away for good. The Warriors play good defense, and unlike Dallas, they can score quickly so no lead is truly safe (even though it is easier to come back at home)

Once again I am counting on the Warriors having a second wind, and that will cause the Mavs all sorts of problems. I think they probably win and go up 3-0 in what is going to be the closest game of the series so far.  

If you want to take the ML, I won't blame you. I will probably get there too.