JJ Redick explains why Chet Holmgren is NBA's ROTY, not Victor Wembanyama

San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama is averaging a ridiculous 23.2 points, 10.3 rebounds and 3.5 blocks in just 24.2 minutes per game since Jan. 1. The PER 36 minutes numbers on those stats would make him the league leader in each of those categories.

Despite Wemby’s hot start to the new year, NBA analyst JJ Redick is picking OKC Thunder big man Chet Holmgren as his Rookie of the Year favorite.

“I think it’s very clear -- Chet Holmgren is the rookie of the year right now,” Redick said on “The Old Man & the Three” podcast.

A part of Redick’s reasoning is that Holmgren is a critical cog of a winning squad – the Thunder are second in the West with a 27-13 record. Wemby and the Spurs, on the other hand, are 7-32 and last in the West.

“To me, it’s not just the box score numbers,” Redick stressed. “Voters are becoming smarter; it’s not whose the leading point-getter or rebounder. What Chet is doing – on a great basketball team, as a rookie – is phenomenal. I’m trying to think… how many times have we seen a rookie this efficient on a top-5 basketball team?

“And not just effective – productive,” Redick continued. “These are real counting stats. OKC is number 3 on defense and number 4 on offense, and Chet, defensively, has been so good – better than I could have imagined. And I think the impact on winning… as long as OKC keeps winning, I don’t care what Wemby does. Chet’s gonna win this thing.”

To Redick's point, Wemby (19.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.2 blocks) trumps Holmgren’s numbers (17.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.8 blocks) from a traditional box score standpoint. However, Wemby's offensive rating (105.2) and defensive rating (112.2) pale in comparison to Holmgren's (120.1) and (110.7) advanced stats. Holmgren is also making threes at a higher clip (38.7 to 29.2) despite attempting fewer shots (4.2 to 4.9).

With the end of the NBA regular season still three months away, a lot can happen that can sway Redick and others in favor of Wemby as Rookie of the Year. That said, Holmgren is now the odds-on favorite to win the award, per BETMGM, and most Las Vegas sportsbooks.