Your 41-39 Los Angeles Lakers will be doing some blatant score-watching tonight, beyond just trying to take care of business at home against the Phoenix Suns.
As the NBA's PR team notes today, the Lakers would be stuck in the Western Conference's play-in tournament if they lose to a very undermanned Phoenix Suns club and the 42-38 Golden State Warriors win against the 48-32 Sacramento Kings tonight.
Given that the Lakers will boast such a massive injury advantage, it seems fairly likely that, should LA play at least one of its top three scorers tonight (none of whom are guaranteed to suit up), Los Angeles will win, thus staying in the thick of the hunt for a fifth or sixth seed in the West (the Clippers, inactive tonight, are also 42-38).
As Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic notes, the Lakers have practically the same chances of being a fifth or sixth seed as they doing being a ninth seed in the West
The ninth and tenth seeds essentially are doomed to duke it out, in two games, for the right to be their conference's eighth seed in the official playoffs, where in this case they would face the 52-28 Denver Nuggets. Denver has been liberally resting top players down its season's home stretch, with its No. 1 seed secured.
It would behoove LA to skip the play-in tournament, and a date with Denver, altogether. But playing against the mighty Suns, who should be at full strength when the playoffs hit, as the West's fifth seed is less-than-ideal. The sweet spot for LA is the sixth seed and an extra week's rest, where they will most likely face the Sacramento Kings. Sacramento has a slight chance to surpass the Memphis Grizzlies and sew up the West's second seed, but it must win out to do so and hope Memphis loses its final two games.
Per Josh Dubow of The Associated Press, the Lakers have a 16.8% chance of notching the West's sixth seed.
LA should beat the Suns. But it could sure use a Warriors loss tonight to help its chances of circumventing bonus play-in games.
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