Little separation in Western Conference sets up wild finish to NBA regular season

With three weeks remaining in the regular season, seven Western Conference teams are separated by two games. The short gap means anything is possible for those teams before the regular season ends, from a guaranteed spot in the postseason to failing to even reach the play-in tournament.

The teams battling for playoff spots are the Warriors, Mavericks, Timberwolves, Thunder, Jazz, Lakers and Pelicans. Utah's 128-120 win over Sacramento on Monday moved the Jazz into the 10th spot and pushed the Lakers down to 11th.

The defending champion Warriors sit at sixth but have been up and down all year. They are among the league's worst on the road (8-29) but make up for it with one of the best home records (29-7) in the Association. 

Five of Golden State's last nine games are at home and ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) gives the Warriors a 73.6 percent chance of reaching the playoffs.

Dallas is also likely to make the postseason per ESPN's BPI (86.4 percent), but that could change depending on the health of stars Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Doncic suffered a thigh injury on March 8 and has missed the team's last five games. Irving was seen in a walking boot after the Mavs 112-108 loss to the Grizzlies on Monday.

Injuries have shaped the playoff race already and will continue to do so down the stretch. Karl-Anthony Towns (Minnesota), LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers) and Zion Williamson (New Orleans) have all missed significant stretches of time that could sink their teams' playoff chances, if the Mavs injuries don't sink them faster.

Of those three, the Lakers (55.6 percent) have the best shot of reaching the playoffs, followed by the Timberwolves (45.2 percent) and Pelicans (12.5 percent).

Despite the win against the Kings, Utah (8.2 percent) has the worst odds of reaching the playoffs according to BPI.

Oklahoma City is the other playoff hopeful and has favorable games against the Trailblazers, Hornets, Pistons and Pacers remaining on the schedule while having the NBA's leading per-game scorer since the All-Star break on their roster.

BPI gives the Thunder a 21.1 percent chance of making the playoffs, which could be selling them short. Among Western Conference teams, Oklahoma City has the fifth-best point differential (plus-1.5) and third-best offense (117.9 points per game).

The Thunder have as good a claim as any for that sixth-seed and avoiding the play-in tournament.

For the seven teams fighting for five playoff spots, the postseason is already here.