Miami receives boost ahead of pivotal Game 6 against Boston
The Heat received a positive update on guard Gabe Vincent on Saturday afternoon when it was announced he is expected to play in a pivotal Game 6. While it's a must-win for Boston, the stakes are almost as high for Miami.
Per Oddschecker, Miami (-135) remains the favorite to win the series but projections from The Ringer and FiveThirtyEight have Boston as a slight favorite in Game 6.
Should the Celtics pull off the win, they'd become only the fourth team to force a Game 7 after trailing 3-0 in a best-of-seven series.
No team in NBA history has won a series in that scenario but Boston would have a great chance to become the first, just as the city's MLB franchise, the Red Sox, became the first MLB team to come back from a 3-0 deficit in 2004 against the Yankees.
Per The Ringer, the Celtics have a 40 percent chance of winning the series in seven games as opposed to the Heat's 19 percent chance of pulling out a series win in seven games.
While Miami is the favorite in the series, Boston's odds of winning the series in seven games (+125) is the betting favorite as far as series outcomes are concerned and it is significantly higher than Miami's chances of winning in seven (+600).
Vincent's return should be a major help for the Heat as they try to close out the series at home. He was crucial to Miami's three wins in the series, shooting 60.7 percent overall and 55.6 percent from three, averaging 17.7 points and 3.3 makes from deep per game.
The Heat are cold from beyond the arc over the past two games, making 31 percent of their attempts after connecting on 47.8 percent of them from Games 1-3.
The offense isn't the only issue for Miami. Its defense has also taken a turn for the worse. In the first three games of the series, Miami averaged 9.3 steals per game. In the past two games, the Heat have had 11 steals total. The Celtics, meanwhile, went from averaging 3.7 steals in the first three games to 10.5 steals per game in the last two.
Boston's more active defense, paired with the offense's fantastic three-point shooting, has buoyed its season. The Celtics have knocked down 34 threes over the past two games after making 31 from deep in the first three games of the series.
Another hot shooting night for Boston will greatly increase the likelihood of a Game 7. If it gets that far, it wouldn't be wise to bet against the Celtics from making history. Luckily for Miami, it should get back a key player as it faces its own must-win scenario.
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