NBA Best Bets: Play-In Tourney Day 1

I still go back and forth about whether I like the Play-In Tourney for the NBA or not. I think it works in terms of generating late-season interest, but it still feels forced. Maybe it will be more of a thing when combined with some of the rule changes that encourage star players to actually play. 

No matter how you feel we have a couple of games tonight that matter, even if no teams will be eliminated in these #7 vs #8 contests.

Let's take a closer look. 

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat
Line: Heat -5
Total: 227

This one is a little fun as these are Southeast Division rivals. Miami took the season series 3-1 but these teams have not met in more than a month. 

Both of these teams disappointed by being in these slots this season. Miami considers themselves a contender and Atlanta is supposed to be a team on the rise. Miami closed the season better but I am not sure that is going to mean much for this game. 

I like the Hawks to be able to keep it close (and win). They lack playoff grizzled veterans but I think they are the more talented team. They are in good health too and I like their depth. This number has the Heat favored by more than they were in any regular-season game during the season. That seems off to me and I think it is very possible we get an upset.

Score Prediction:  Atlanta 107 - Miami 101

Western Conference

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers
Line: Lakers -8.5
Total: 233

Minnesota took the season series 2-1 but the Lakers won the most recent contest as part of their strong finish to the season. 

It would be interesting to see what this line would have been if the Timberwolves were not such a mess right now. Minnesota has talent but the way they closed the season with internal fighting etc. makes it hard to think they are going to flip a switch.

The Lakers are an interesting case with their experience and elite talent. They are very fragile, but this is just one game and I am leaning into them exposing Minnesota pretty thoroughly. My only concern is the late-game action and whether a game played in the 11-12 point range dips to 7 in the past 90 seconds of meaningless action.  I will still side with L.A. for the whole game but a first-half play might be the smart way to attack it.

Score Prediction: Los Angeles 112 - Minnesota 99

Look for both games to come in under too.