NBA bets: Backing James Harden vs. Bucks

It's a smaller slate in the NBA Tuesday night, and there's only one three-point target that fits the bill of my betting approach: the Milwaukee Bucks.

As such, we have just one bet today.

James Harden

Any time the Bucks are playing, we have to look at their opponent. Milwaukee's 14.2 three-pointers allowed per game is the highest mark in the NBA, their clear defensive vulnerability.

The Bucks have also struggled guarding shooting guards this season, which puts Harden squarely on our radar.

Now, I'd normally like to be following higher volume, but Harden has been the steadiest shooter from long-range on Philadelphia and is my preferred place to focus Tuesday.

In his last 10 games, Harden is averaging 6.5 three-point attempts per game, which leads the team.

Now, you look at Harden's numbers since joining Philadelphia, and they don't wow you, especially at this 2.5 line, which he has hit in just six of his 14 games as a 76er.

However, context is key: Philadelphia hasn't faced many defenses vulnerable to three-point shots.

In fact, I see only two such targets, the Magic and Timberwolves.

In those two games, Harden went 3-for-11 and 5-for-7 from three.

This is his third opportunity against a team that struggles guarding the perimeter, and with Giannis's attention likely on Joel Embiid, I think Harden gets seven attempts off Tuesday from long-range.

Betting options:

• .75u on 3+ threes (+130 FanDuel)
• .25u on 4+ threes (+330 FD)

Good luck Tuesday night!