NBA betting: Are the Warriors a better playoff bet than their odds suggest?
The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers have almost identical records as the NBA season winds down. So why are the odds of one going to the playoffs so much shorter than the other?
These in-state rivals are pretty much locked in to do battle in the play-in tournament en route to the first round of the playoffs. L.A. sits at 45-34 and is 8-2 over their last 10, while the NorCal contingent is 43-35 and has gone 7-3. Yet, despite being in relatively the same shape with a few games left to play, the Lakers are listed at -110 at DraftKings to make the playoffs while the Warriors are priced at +190 to make it — and -240 that they won't.
Sure, the Warriors are currently 10th in the standings, teetering on the edge of the play-in picture. But that doesn't make them that much less likely to defeat the Lakers — who are just ninth in the standings — in the postseason two years in a row, does it?
Should you still put money on Steph Curry and the Dubs to be back in the playoff race, even if it means going up against LeBron James and the Lakers? Here's why you should consider this bet.
A clear reason to think Golden State has a better chance of making the playoffs than their odds imply is that they're getting hot at the right time. While the beginning of the season was highlighted by slow starts and late-game leads that turned into losses, the Dubs have turned things around for the better. The San Francisco Chronicle's Ann Killion noted the team's chemistry following their 118-110 win against the Utah Jazz on Sunday.
"It was evident in the past two weeks, when they put together a six-game win streak before losing to Dallas," Killion wrote. "And it was evident again on Sunday night, even with Stephen Curry relegated to cheerleading on the bench -- a predetermined rest day that was particularly needed after he played back-to-back in Texas."
That's another thing to like about how Golden State is playing right now. A productive and mostly healthy lineup means that Curry can be rested. Klay Thompson is rounding back into form after a rough start to his season, Chris Paul is healthy and youngsters like Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski are contributing.
"Thompson poured in 32 points, and Jonathan Kuminga (who had missed six games with knee tendinitis) was back and bouncy, scoring 21 points and grabbing 10 rebounds," Killion said of the win against Utah. "The rookies, Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis, scored 16 points apiece."
The Lakers don't have the same luck without James on the court, going 6-5 on the season without him. That includes a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday night and a loss on Feb. 22 to, you guessed it, the Warriors.
Need a little more convincing that the Warriors are a good bet at +190 odds to make the playoffs? Look no further than their Tuesday night matchup down in Los Angeles.
The Lakers had a four-game streak going on in the head-to-head series, which included a free-throw-heavy double-overtime win back in January. The Dubs have taken the last two games, however, winning 128-110 in the LeBron-less game and 128-121 in their most recent matchup.
The Warriors' playoff odds may not be as short as their rival's odds, but they are getting contributions throughout their lineup and getting hot at the right time. With the regular season winding down, the Dubs look like more of a playoff team than their current odds will lead you to believe.
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