NBA Futures Betting: To Wemby or Not to Wemby
It was a foregone conclusion that center Victor Wembanyama would be the first pick in the NBA Draft back in June. He is a wonderful prospect, but winning Rookie of the Year is not about potential, it is about production. There are definitely concerns about whether the big man is physically ready to make an immediate impact in the league ... and if he isn't there are many who are ready to get their careers started right away.
The NBA ROY odds are interesting. It is definitely expected that one of the top-drafted players will take the hardware — the last six winners have all been selected in the top four picks. However, only two of those six were top picks though, including Paulo Banchero last year.
Here is a look at the leading contenders for NBA Rookie of the Year.
Tier 1
Victor Wembenyama +100
Scoot Henderson +250
Chet Holmgren +300
Holmgren, remember him? He was the tall unicorn from last year's draft who never saw a minute of action due to injury. He is tempting, but Henderson is the best choice in this group, the trades of Damian Lillard and then Jrue Holiday open up a lot of playing time and he has enough support in the backcourt that he can be both a scorer and distributor. He is also very physically mature. Of course, Wemby is going to have an opportunity to deliver on early promise too, but at that price, you are taking on some real physical risk.
My best bet ... Henderson, the likely top rookie scorer.
Tier 2
Brandon Miller +1500
Cam Whitmore +2000
Jerace Walker +2500
Amen Thompson +2500
Sasha Vezenkov +2800
Ausur Thompson +3000
This is a fascinating group. Miller was actually drafted before Henderson but the odds gap is very wide and Whitmore was drafted all the way down at #20, even though most thought he would be a lottery pick heading into last year. The Thompson Twins were back to back at No. 4 and No. 5 with Amen considered more of a long shot to win the award than his teammate Whitmore — Houston is about winning this season and Whitmore probably helps more with that. You probably don't know much about Vezenkov given he was drafted back in 2017. He has had his rights traded twice and will be 28 as a rookie this season. Ausur Thompson might have the best opportunity on a Detroit team that needs a little bit of everything.
My best bet ... Vezkenkov, the vet has a great chance to be a top sixth man on a good team.
Tier 3
Keyonte George +3000
Anthony Black +3000
Vasilije Micic +3500
Grady Dick +3500
Taylor Hendricks +3500
Micic is another experienced European who is finally making his NBA debut (he was drafted back in 2014). He is suiting up for OKC and might be the first rookie to be the oldest player on a team. George and Black were expected first-round selections but both have something to prove. George that his year at Baylor is not who he really is and Black that he has more than great intangibles and athleticism. Dick and Hendricks are gifted shooters and their teams need them to let it fly.
My best bet ... Dick, he is not flashy but when the ball goes in the hoop people notice.
Other Notables
Jordan Hawkins +7500
Shooters shoot and Hawkins was considered the best shooter in the draft. I am not sure the fit is the best in New Orleans, but he should get lots of open looks, especially with Zion Williamson healthy. If he is ready for them maybe she shoots his way to the award.
Jaime Jacquez Jr. +7500
Jacquez just feels like a Miami Heat guy. Miami is great at extracting maximum value out of underrated players too and they are desperate for more help on the perimeter due to personnel losses. He is walking into a good situation.
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