NBA MVP preview: Is this Luka Doncic's year?

The NBA MVP award doesn't produce the most level-headed and rational debate in sports, so we'll help you sort through the madness as the start of the season looms Tuesday.

Luka Doncic, G/F, Dallas Mavericks

Slow starts and a lack of team success have stood in the way of Doncic winning his first MVP title. Here's the good news for fans of the superstar from Slovenia: In 2023-24, Dallas will have a full season of Kyrie Irving. Plus, it has newly acquired Grant Williams, a good rebounder, and a good — alebit very young — rim protector in rookie Dereck Lively II. Things are lining up for Doncic (32.4 PPG in 2023-23) better than they have in the past, and this might be the season he takes home the hardware.
 
Giannis Antetokounmpo, F, Milwaukee Bucks 

Of course, Antetokounmpo is good enough to be a perennial MVP candidate regardless of who is on his team. With Damian Lillard on his team, Antetokounmpo's life should be easier, as the duo will create a pick-and-roll combination that is nearly impossible to defend.  
Antetokounmpo has never played with another high-octane player like Dame, so his usage rate might drop a bit. But the ultra-spacing that Lillard provides should help his efficiency enough to offset a slight drop in shot attempts. If Antetokounmpo can get his rim-finishing numbers back up near 80%, the "Greek Freak" might be in line for MVP No. 3.
 
Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets

Jokic's MVP case is a bit of a Catch-22 for him. The two-time MVP had one of the most efficient all-round seasons we've seen in 2022-23, but it came at the expense of his raw numbers dropping a bit. If his raw numbers go back up again, it might be at the expense of some of that stunning efficiency. And if his efficiency (somehow) goes up again, it will likely once again come at the expense of his raw numbers.
 
However, if Jokic somehow raises (or even keeps steady) his efficiency from last season — which included a 70.1 true shooting percentage and a VORP of 8.8 — while raising his raw numbers too (24.8 points, 9.8 assists per game) ... well, just hand him the MVP now.
 
Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers

Coming off an MVP last season, Embiid — who averaged 33.1 points and 10.2 rebounds last season — somehow still feels like a long shot. The Sixers are mired in dysfunction as James Harden waits out his trade request. Losing an All-Star-level teammate hardly ever bodes well for MVP candidates. 

Nevertheless, Embiid might be able to make a case for himself by himself. Even with Harden's creation ability no longer in the picture, Embiid is such a dominant post player that his numbers might not even suffer that much. That said, without Harden (and Shake Milton, Georges Niang and Jalen McDaniels), Philadelphia's record might end up being a hindrance to Embiid's MVP case.

Jayson Tatum, F, Boston Celtics

Marcus Smart morphed his game the past few seasons into the "point guard" Boston needed, but at the end of the day, point guard wasn't his natural position. Point guard is Jrue Holiday's natural position, however, and having Holiday running the offense could help Tatum — who shoots over 40% on catch-and-shoot threes — play off the ball a little bit more. 

Of course, Tatum's creation means the ball should be in his hands a lot — and it still will be. But a little jump in efficiency could bolster JT's MVP case, and Holiday could be the one to help that efficiency rise.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Oklahoma City Thunder

A long shot? Maybe, but after averaging 31.4 points last season, SGA returns with Chet Holmgren by his side. Don't expect him to post numbers quite as gaudy as last season, but if Gilgeous-Alexander can hover around the top five in scoring and OKC makes a leap to playoff-contending status, he very well might get serious consideration.