NBA prop betting for Thursday, Feb. 22: For the love of Ivey
Happy NBA Second Half! We started the first half with a bang, but then things got a little choppy with our daily NBA props picks. We did earn back some value over the last couple of weeks, but a second half is a perfect time for a reset, right?
Just as a reminder, I am always looking for values in the +100 range or better. So there are no Domantas Sabonis over 7.5 rebounds picks at -195 (it might be even worse than that). That means the winning percentage is never going to be elite but hopefully, the profitability will be there. Also, I am going to start segmenting the plays a little more, so hopefully that helps. (I think it might help me, too.)
Tonight we have 12 NBA games to choose from including some really interesting star-powered games featuring the teams from Los Angeles.
NBA Props for Thursday, Feb. 22
Standard Stuff (+100 to +130)
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 10.5 Points (+125) Alt Line
The current starting center for the Knicks missed the last couple of games before the break. He is expected to play tonight and I like the matchup against Embiid-less Philly. In games he has played this month he is average over 11 ppg so even though this is an alt line it is not a major stretch. He scored 17 against the 76ers in a game where he also had to guard him last month. He will be freer tonight.
Walker Kessler Over 8.5 Rebounds (+125) Alt Line
Kessler has seen a bump in playing time since the trade of Kelly Olynyk. As long as he gets minutes he is productive on the glass and now he is starting. He is better at home too and against a poor team like Charlotte he should be able to feel very comfortable out there. The Hornets do not play with much size, so there is not a ton of competition on the glass.
Take a Chance (+130 to +150)
Jusuf Nurkic Over 10.5 Rebounds (+140) Alt line
Nurkic is one of the steadiest players around and with his physical style, I am sure he appreciated the break. He averages 10 rpg so this is hardly a stretch and we are getting great value a little more than normal production. The last time they played Dallas he was not a big factor but that game got out of hand (Kyrie Irving did not play in a 23-point loss). This one should be tighter and his production/minutes will be normalized.
Big Payoff (+150 and better)
Jaden Ivey 30+ Points, Rebounds and Assists (+155)
Detroit is going nowhere this season and their moves at the deadline have made it easier for Ivey to get more playing time. Layering that into a game against Indiana and their fast pace and I like him to have a very strong game tonight. He has hit this mark in one of two games against the Pacers this season, and three times in February.
More must-reads: