Pascal Siakam deal another sign NBA free agency is unimportant

Siakam can become a free agent this summer, but all indications are that he's staying in Indiana. According to Sam Amick of The Athletic, Siakam likes his fit with the Pacers, likes coach Rick Carlisle and general manager Chad Buchanan, likes Tyrese Halburton and has wanted to play with center Myles Turner for years. His free agency in July is likely a formality, with the team and player already implicitly agreeing on a new contract, likely a max.

The same thing seems to have happened with his former Toronto teammate OG Anunoby. The Raptors traded CAA client Anunoby to the New York Knicks, whose team president, Leon Rose, was the head of the basketball division at CAA until 2020. In fact, one of Anunoby's three CAA agents is Rose's son, Sam, which strongly implies the Knicks have the inside track with him.

Knicks reporter Ian Begley all but guaranteed Anunoby would resign with the Knicks, offering to send $100 to a random fan if he went anywhere else in free agency this summer.

Both NBA players and teams want certainty going forward, and that has changed the importance of free agency. No superstars have changed teams in free agency since 2019, when Kawhi Leonard joined the Clippers and Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving teamed up on the Brooklyn Nets. The most prominent free agent who changed teams last summer was Fred VanVleet, who's averaged less than 15 points per game for his career.

One reason is that players are highly incentivized to sign with their current teams due to Bird rights. These rights let a team go over the salary cap to re-sign its own players, as well as to bypass the supermax rules, which also require a player to stay put to maximize his income. Teams used to hoard cap space to get a chance at top players. Now they simply trade for them before their deals are up.

Looking ahead to this summer, most of the top free agents are highly unlikely to change teams. Siakam and Anunoby appear locked in, Tyrese Maxey will almost certainly get a max deal from the 76ers and LeBron James would only leave the Lakers if something disastrous occurred.

While NBA fans and transaction junkies will still obsess over June 30, the date teams can negotiate with free agents, it's probable that the most prominent free agent will be Philadelphia's Tobias Harris, a perfectly fine player who is a zero-time All-Star.

Free agency is dead. Long live the mid-season trade!