Suns vs. Mavericks Game 6 odds, best bet: Expect Phoenix to advance

I was on the Phoenix side for Game 5 so I am not surprised the Suns won comfortably, though I definitely did not see a 30-point home beatdown of the Mavericks.

Amazingly, they were down a few points at the end of the first quarter too, but after that, they thoroughly dominated, especially in the third quarter, when they gave up just 14 points. 

Dallas was terrible in the loss by almost any measure so there is some hope to come back home and right the ship the way it did in Games 3 and 4. A loss like the one the Mavs just had can be hard to come back from though, especially when you are looking at a team that has one dominant player and a bunch of players still trying to carve out roles in the NBA like Dallas.

Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson scored 49 points for Dallas in Game 5. The rest of the team scored just 31, including two starting lineup positions that did not notch a point. Dallas is better than it showed in Game 5, but is there enough in the tank to extend the series?

The oddsmakers are saying not likely. 

Game Info

Phoenix Suns (3-2) vs. Dallas Mavericks (2-3)
Thursday, May 12, 2022
9:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
ESPN

Betting Odds

Spread: Suns -2 (-110), Mavericks +2 (-110)
Total: 212.5
Moneyline: Suns -140, Mavericks +115

Best Bet

Phoenix -2

I always like to revisit my thoughts heading into a series in examining each game. Each "chapter" provides new information, but a thoroughly researched opinion is still very valuable. 

I reference this in the context of if you thought the Suns were going to win the series and it wasn't going to go seven games, then you have to take them tonight, right? Food for thought. 

Have the games you have seen confirmed opinions, created new ones or are they just noise?

In the previous two games in Dallas, the Mavs were small favorites in one and small underdogs in the other. They won both as Chris Paul played a couple of very poor games, and Luka's supporting cast rose to the occasion just enough to get a victory. In neither case did it feel like the Mavs identified an advantage that they could really repeat to win the series. 

That is why the Suns are the favored side in this spot and are the bet to make tonight. Getting there is a culmination of the following thoughts (hopefully you agree):

• I do think the Suns win the series. (I always did. In fact, I am surprised it even went to a Game 6.)
  
• I do think Chris Paul is more likely than not to rise to the occasion and play well in games that matter the most. (He has done it before.)
  
• I do think Luka will have an awesome game to carry the team (and it won't be enough).
  
• I do think the Suns' depth will be an advantage (as it has been all season long).
  
• I do think that when the Suns close the series tonight it should include a cover. (They only have to win by two.)

Look for tonight to be a game that just says Phoenix is the better team. That gets us the win and the cover as the Suns advance. That's all we need.