Warriors vs. Celtics Game 4 prediction, odds and best bet

The Boston Celtics won Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead in the NBA Finals. I was on the Golden State side which is disappointing. I am also finding it very interesting that we have yet to have a close game in the series. 

Golden State had another one of their big third quarters to get back into the game (and actually lead for a moment) but it just couldn't find a finishing kick on the road. By the time Draymond Green fouled out and Steph Curry got his ankle tweaked it seemed like the game had already slipped away.

Heading into Game 4, the Warriors are definitely back into desperation mode. Curry has been carrying a big scoring load and even though it looks like his ankle injury is minor, it has to be very concerning given that he has been the only consistent offensive threat for Golden State.

Boston was -3.5 for Game 3, so we are seeing a small bump in the line (-4) after the convincing win. In the last game and throughout the series the Celtics have been getting much better balance. They have not been as reliant on any one player the way that Golden State has.

The Warriors have not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs. You have to go all the way back to March to find the last time they lost two contests in a row. Are these teams going to trade wins and losses until they can't? We find out tonight. 

Game Info

Golden State Warriors (1-2) vs. Boston Celtics (2-1)
Friday, June 10, 2022
9:00 PM ET
TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
ABC

Betting Odds

Spread: Warriors +4 (-110), Celtics -4 (-110)
Total: 214.5
Moneyline: Warriors +145, Celtics -165

Best Bet

Over 214.5

I have backed Golden State in all three games in this series and have come away with just a 1-2 record. I still have a hard time believing the experienced Warriors are not going to rally in this series (which should mean winning tonight) but I am looking at the total as a different way to play Game 4.

Through three games we have seen a two overs and one under. We have also seen a series where the winning team has won by double-digits each time. A real surprise. 

Curry, the best scorer on either side, comes into this game with a minor injury so you have to be wondering why I am leaning to the over.

The main reason I like the over is that the pace in this series has been much greater than I expected. Both of these teams are excellent on defense, but the series has not become a grinder. Mostly it has become a three-point shooting contest. Points can come very quickly, as evidenced by the seven-point possession by Golden State in Game 3.

While the Celtics do not have players with the shooting pedigrees of Curry or Klay Thompson, they have been making enough of their shots and their offensive rebounding prowess has given them ample opportunities to get points even after the Warriors have played good defense. 

I can see the Warriors getting back into the series tonight, but they are going to have to shoot their way back. Even though they held the Celtics to just 88 points in their lone series win at home I can't see them winning that way on the road. Boston is going to be too comfortable to see their scoring drop much from the other night. 

We are still looking for that first close game of the series where effective foul shooting can help push a game over the total late. We have to get one of those eventually right?

Look for a close game that should be on pace to cover the over throughout. 

Score Prediction: Golden State 114 - Boston 111