Which young NBA team is most likely to make a deep playoff run?

Usually, one NBA team per season makes the leap from mediocre to truly competitive. This year, three teams are trying to do it. The Orlando Magic, Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder all appear ready for success now. But which of these young teams has the best shot at a real playoff run?

Orlando Magic

Orlando becoming a good team isn't surprising - the duo of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner is a core that any NBA franchise would be elated to build around. But the speed with which Orlando has risen from the dregs of the Eastern Conference is wholly impressive.

The Magic win by wearing teams down. They're third in defensive rating (107.6), third in transition defense (108.0 points allowed per 100 possessions) and third in halfcourt defense. It's hard to score on Orlando no matter what.

Offensively, they wear teams down, too. Orlando is second in free-throw attempts (27.6 per game) but this team is not great in half-court offense and they're also prone to turnovers and rank just 18th in assists per game (25.6). 

In the playoffs, the game slows down and whistles are tighter, meaning Orlando probably won't get to the free throw line as frequently. Can the Magic count on their defense and the improved three-point shooting from Banchero (43.6%) to keep them in games against elite offenses?

Indiana Pacers

Don't blink or you might miss them. Indiana currently has an offensive rating of 122.5, which would be the best ever if the season ended today. It's not just a product of their pace, either, though they do play faster than anyone else. Indiana is first in both transition offense and halfcourt offense. Even more impressive is how well they protect the ball, ranking fourth in turnover percentage. That is thanks in large part to star point guard Tyrese Haliburton, who is recording 11.9 assists per game to only 2.5 turnovers.

Unfortunately, that's only one side of the ball. Indiana is near the bottom of the league in pretty much every defensive category, including 28th in defensive rating.

Indiana needs to continue to protect the ball well in the playoffs. This team can't stop anyone, so winning games via shootout – which they certainly can do – will be their best bet of pulling an upset. 

Oklahoma City Thunder

Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been elite for a few seasons and now the rest of his team is catching up. After an All-NBA season in 2022-23, SGA has somehow gotten better. The 6-foot-6 guard is still averaging 30.5 points per game, but now he's posting career highs in both rebounds (6.0) and assists (6.1) while leading the NBA in steals (2.4).

Oh, he also has the potential rookie of the year by his side in Chet Holmgren, plus a rapidly improving Jalen Williams.

Shooting-wise, OKC picks its spots. The Thunder lead the league in three-point shooting percentage (40.3%) but they don't live by the three, ranking just 24th in attempts. That could bode well come playoff time - if the shots aren't falling, OKC can beat you in different ways, like an SGA drive (he leads the NBA with 21 drives per game.)

Who Can Make The Run?

OKC might be built the best out of these three teams for immediate playoff success. They have a superstar in SGA, a budding star in Chet Holmgren, a great "connector" in Jalen Williams and wonderful role players. This team is good on both ends of the court and they have a great - if unproven - young coach in Mark Daigneault.