Houston Rockets dream, nightmare seeding, matchup scenarios for 2025 NBA Playoffs

The Houston Rockets are poised for a playoff run as they stand as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. While the Rockets have had a great regular season, they are a young roster that could be upset with a nightmare matchup.

Houston has built a defensive team that has a ton of depth. Jalen Green has led the way as a scorer for the Rockets, averaging 21.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game. Green is shooting 42.6 percent from the field and 35.4 percent from three.

Houston also has talented young players such as Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson. Sengun made his first All-Star game this season, averaging 19.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game. The 22-year-old big man’s all-around offensive game has been impactful for the Rockets.

Thompson has also excelled in his second season in the league. The young star is a great two-way player, averaging 14 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. He is shooting 55.6 percent from the floor and 28.4 percent from deep.

The Rockets have mixed in some veterans around their young core, including Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams. With that said, here are the Houston Rockets’ dream and nightmare seeding and matchup scenarios for the 2025 NBA Playoffs.

Rockets’ dream seeding and matchup scenario

The Rockets’ dream scenario would be to remain as the two seed in the Western Conference. If Houston can clinch the two seed, they would have home-court advantage guaranteed in the first and second round of the playoffs.

The Rockets would benefit from going up against a play-in team in the first round and avoiding a second-round matchup against the number one seed Oklahoma City Thunder. While the Western Conference play-in teams are talented, clinching the two seed is the easiest pathway.

Their ideal matchup in the first round would be the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis fired head coach Taylor Jenkins only 10 games before the playoffs. The Grizzlies have a star duo of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., who have played well. However, with a big change in coaching right before the season ends, Memphis has fallen from the No. 4 seed to the No. 8 seed.

The Rockets went 3-1 in the series in four regular-season matchups. Houston’s defense and athleticism gives them an edge over the Grizzlies in a series.

Rockets’ nightmare seeding and matchup scenario

The worst seeding scenario for Houston would be to drop to the three seed. Although this is unlikely, it would pose a bigger challenge for the Rockets.

Having the third seed in the West would only give them home-court advantage in the first round, assuming the two seed advances to the second round.

The Rockets’ nightmare matchup in the first round would be the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors play a different brand of basketball than Houston, as they have a consistent scoring punch with Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler.

Butler, a notable playoff riser, could take advantage of Houston’s young talent on both ends of the floor. Golden State also has an elite defense led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Draymond Green.

With their championship experience and style of play, the Warriors would be the worst matchup for the Rockets in the first round. Houston has had a successful season, but they could be upset in the first round. The West is as talented as ever, and with the Rockets’ mostly young roster, making a deep run will be challenging.