Knicks HC Tom Thibodeau should make a strategic lineup change

Basketball Reference says the Knicks’ starting lineup is the most used throughout the entire postseason; go figure, I know. But that five-man unit is being outscored by 8.2 points per 100 possessions over 212 minutes.

All the questions about this team seemingly have the same answer, with big man Mitchell Robinson representing one of just two Knicks with a positive plus-minus (Miles McBride being the other).

Robinson is averaging 5 points, 7.7 rebounds, and a steal through the first three games.

If that isn’t jumping off the page for you, factor in the following:

• Robinson is averaging just 20.7 minutes a night, meaning those numbers jump to 8.3 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per 36 minutes.
• The seventh-year center, who’s also New York’s longest tenured player, is a (+29) in the series, the highest mark on the team by a country mile. For reference, Brunson has the team’s second-highest mark at (-15).
• According to NBA.com’s Matchups Tracking, Jayson Tatum is shooting (3-for-9) from the floor with 4 turnovers when guarded by Robinson. That’s a hell of an impact on Boston’s best player.

Further exploration of the numbers—and the film for those who care more for the “Thibsian” approach—will tell the story of a team’s best player being held under lock and key on the pine.

According to Pivot Fade, in 62 minutes with Robinson on the floor in this series, the Knicks are averaging 121.9 points per 100 possessions while holding Boston to 93.2 points per. Those numbers cascade to 90 points scored and 119.8 points allowed with him off the floor over 87 minutes.

Unfortunately, it’s not just the Knicks who are holding Robinson back. It’s also the Celtics’ aggressive, unorthodox schemes that are effectively forcing Thibodeau’s hand.

Anytime Robinson has been put on the floor, Boston has almost immediately turned toward fouling him and ultimately sending him to the free-throw line.

The result? Fouls aplenty for the Celtics, but even more missed free throws for Robinson:

• Game 1: Robinson checks in with 7:07 remaining in the first quarter, Luke Kornet fouls him with 1:03 remaining in the frame. Kornet doubled down with another foul just 23 seconds later.
• Game 2: Robinson enters with 4:43 remaining in the first quarter, and Kornet fouls him with 8:38 left in the second. He was subbed out immediately.
• Game 3: After entering with 5:45 remaining in the first, Robinson was fouled with 3:14 remaining in the quarter. Thibs subbed out the center only 19 seconds later.

A career 58.2% free-throw shooter, he’s gone just 7-of-23 from the charity stripe through the first three games. That’s a 30% conversion rate on the free ones.

New York is being forced to watch Robinson’s confidence roller coaster between each attempt, while the game stoppage helps to keep the entire team out of rhythm. It’s a bold strategy from Joe Mazzulla and company, yet it’s also a major tell.

Boston is willingly racking up individual and team fouls in order to keep Robinson off the floor. It’s easy to overlook their efforts through the prism of missed free throws.

Instead, try and look at it through Robinson’s impact.

Mazzulla is trying to call Thibodeau’s bluff—because only one player on the Knicks has been a consistent and major thorn in the side of a Celtics team trying to rest on its laurels.

My argument is pretty obvious.

Thibodeau should give in and start Robinson next to Karl-Anthony Towns in Game 4.

New York committed to a five-out offense last summer when it traded for Towns and rerouted Julius Randle to the Minnesota Timberwolves. It was a seismic shift for one of the seemingly more sound teams in last year’s postseason.

But in the NBA playoffs, playing the matchup is imperative. Against a Boston team that’s transparently aching to keep Mitch off the hardwood, that counterpunch is highly likely to volley to the other side.

The dual-big lineup has been far and away the Knicks’ best throughout the playoffs, period, but certainly against the Celtics. According to Pivot Fade, with Robinson and Towns on the floor, New York is scoring 120.9 points per 100 possessions and limiting Boston to just 61.4 points per. That’s otherworldly.

And yet, those two have only shared the floor for 25 of the series’ 144 minutes.

It’s been an up-and-down first Knicks postseason for Towns, who was brought to the Big Apple for his three-point prowess. He’s made just one three-pointer in this series. When he’s the only big on the floor, Boston’s done a great job of putting him in actions that push him into the post.

Most of—if not all—of his three-point attempts have come on fast-break opportunities, before the Celtics’ defense can get set.

Whether you believe in the five-out offense or not, and despite your concerns over the spacing with Robinson on the floor, it can’t get any worse than that. So, why not start Robinson?

Take what the other team is begging you not to do, and do it big, no pun intended.