NBA MVP tale of the tape: Is winner Giannis or LeBron?

TRADITIONAL STATS

After making the move to full-time point guard at age 35, LeBron is having arguably the most impressive statistical season of his career, averaging 25.7 points, a league-leading 10.6 assists and 7.9 rebounds in a career-low 34.9 minutes a game. And while his shooting splits (50-35-70) aren’t quite as impressive as they were during his Miami and latter days in Cleveland, he’s making more three-pointers per game (2.2) than ever — some of them coming from the logo.

But as impressive as LeBron’s season is from a statistical standpoint, Giannis’ 2019-20 is even better. He averages 29.6 points, 13.7 rebounds and 5.8 assists in less than 31 minutes a game!  The points and rebounds are nearly identical to Shaquille O’Neal’s in his MVP season of 1999-2000 (29.7 ppg. and 13.6 rpg.) in which he played 40 minutes a game, but the assists per game dwarf Shaq’s 3.8 apg. Basketball may be more favorable to offensive players than ever, but what Giannis is doing this season from a statistical standpoint is historical. He clearly has the edge.

WINNER: Giannis

ADVANCED STATS

This comparison tells a similar story: LeBron’s advanced numbers are MVP-worthy, but Giannis’ are simply better. LeBron’s got Antetokounmpo beat in offensive win shares (6.1 to 5.6), but Giannis has the advantage in just about everything else: total win shares, defensive win shares, value over replacement player and PER. Speaking of PER, Giannis’ is 31.64, which would be the fifth-best rating in NBA history and in striking range of the record. (Wilt Chamberlain had a 32.82 in 1962-63.)

In addition, because the Bucks have been blowing teams out all season and do their best to limit Giannis’ minutes, his per-36 minutes numbers are insane. In fact, they’re damn near as impressive as Chamberlain’s per-36 numbers from his 50.4 ppg., 25.7 rpg. season in 1961-62. Wilt’s per-36 numbers that season were 37.4 ppg. 19.0 rpg. and 1.8 apg, compared to Giannis’, which are 34.5 ppg., 16.0 rpg. and 6.7 apg. Giannis clearly takes this category, but he shouldn’t get too comfortable — Wilt came in second in MVP voting in 1961-62.

WINNER: Giannis

IMPACT STATS

Here’s where LeBron begins to make his move.

The Lakers and Bucks are dominant when their MVPs are on the court. Los Angeles is plus-10.9 points per 100 possessions better than opponents with LeBron; the Bucks are an even more impressive plus-16.4 points per 100 possessions better than opponents with Giannis. While Giannis’ on-court numbers pop more than LeBron’s, the off-court numbers begin to show how important LeBron is to the Lakers’ success. When LeBron goes to the bench, despite Anthony Davis almost always still being on the court, the Lakers become an average team (only plus-0.1 points per 100 possessions); the Bucks remain a very good team when Giannis subs out (plus-4.6 points per 100 possessions).

Why is that? Probably because the Lakers offense is dependent on LeBron’s ability to find open shooters and big men rolling to the basket. James easily leads the league in assist points created per game (the amount of points his teammates score off of his assists) with 26.5. That number dwarfs Giannis’ 15.4 assist points created per game.

WINNER: James

MVP NARRATIVE

As I wrote in this column, every MVP campaign needs an accompanying narrative. From my piece: "Giannis’ MVP narrative will be one of dominance, a season where he erases any doubt as to whether he’s the best player in the world." 

Guess what? Giannis has more than embraced that, as he’s having a historically dominant regular season. Until a month ago, he looked like the unequivocal best player in the world.

Unfortunately for Giannis’ once-seemingly inevitable MVP season, LeBron’s campaign has come on like a freight train in recent months. His MVP narrative: The media has mocked his team the past 12 months and declared that he’s no longer the Best Player on the Planet. It’s all set up perfectly for LeBron to come out and have a G.O.A.T. kind of season to remind the basketball world that he’s still the King. 

Guess what? That’s exactly what the #WashedKing has accomplished this season. Over the weekend, he outplayed Giannis and Kawhi Leonard in back-to-back wins and sent a clear message to the league that he owns the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

Both players’ narratives are MVP-worthy. It’s too early to call this category.

WINNER: Draw

EYE TEST

Taking the entire season into consideration, which player has looked more dominant on a game-to-game basis? 

While LeBron appears to have unleashed Playoff LeBron Mode over his past 10 games (30.2 ppg., 9.9 apg., 8.6 rpg.), I can't ignore Giannis’ nightly two-way brilliance. Like LeBron in his Miami years, Giannis is once again the front-runner for MVP and in the discussion for Defensive Player of the Year. He unleashes holy hell on opponents every game with impossible-to-defend drives to the basket, ferocious dunks and elite rim protection. With little to no time for coaches to scout and game-plan for him during the regular season, he’s one of the most unstoppable players in league history.

This is no slight toward LeBron — after all, he provided the blueprint for what Giannis does. It’s more a testament to how hard Giannis plays every game. In fact, LeBron has shown on numerous occasions this season that he can still be every bit as physically imposing as he was during the 2018 playoffs. Give me Playoff LeBron over every player in the NBA, but give me Regular-Season Giannis for 82 games for the Eye Test category.

WINNER: Giannis

MVP MOMENTS

Perhaps it’s due to the disparity in national exposure, but it just feels like LeBron has had way more MVP moments than Giannis this season. To wit, there was the 39-point, 16-assist, 12-rebound overtime thriller against Luka Doncic in the fifth game of the season; the two recent “Watch the Throne” performances against Zion Williamson; the game-winner vs. the Celtics; the back-to-back wins against the Bucks and Clippers in which he was the best player on the court; and, while not necessarily relevant to his on-court performance, his speech in the wake of the Kobe and Gigi Bryant tragedy was one of his finest moments of his 17-year career.

Giannis has had plenty of MVP moments this season as well. My favorites are his five three-pointers, overall dominance and “I wear this now” self-crowning gesture in the first matchup against the Lakers; a 50-point, 14-rebound, six-assist game against the normally stingy Jazz defense; and a 41-point, 20-rebound, six-assist obliteration of the Hornets. Giannis has had his memorable moments, but LeBron seems to have a couple extra exclamation points.

WINNER: LeBron

MOMENTUM

If the season ended today, I’d expect Giannis to be crowned MVP and receive around 60-70 percent of the first-place votes from a panel of sports writers and broadcasters in the U.S. and Canada. However, the combination of LeBron’s huge weekend against the Bucks and Clippers, his post-All-Star Game brilliance and Giannis’ scary but ultimately minor knee sprain give LeBron the momentum advantage.

While Giannis isn’t expected to miss more than a couple of games, the Bucks have lost three straight and are no longer on pace to win 70, diminishing what seemed like a huge advantage in the team success column over LeBron. If the Bucks finish 68-14 in the East and the Lakers finish 66-16 in the West, did Milwaukee really have a better season? The West is much better than the East, after all. 

If the Bucks are conservative with bringing Giannis back, his statistics could fall a bit. Can voters make the same “historical season” argument for Giannis if his PER and per-36 numbers dip? Likewise, if Giannis misses 10-plus games (he’s already missed eight) and LeBron misses only four or five (he’s only missed three), does that factor into the race?

WINNER: LeBron

FINAL TALLY

Three points for Giannis, three for LeBron and one tie. It's going to be one helluva an MVP race over the last fifth of the season.