Raptors Have History on Their Side But Contending Takes More Than Lottery Luck

Toronto has history on its side.

Since the NBA flattened the lottery odds six years ago, the seventh slot has been unusually fortunate, jumping into the top four four times. The only exception came last year when the Memphis Grizzlies dropped to No. 9 and selected Canadian center Zach Edey.

The Raptors have benefited from this trend too. In 2021, they moved up to No. 4 and selected Scottie Barnes. Before that, the New Orleans Pelicans vaulted to No. 1 in 2019 and drafted Zion Williamson. The Chicago Bulls jumped to No. 4 in 2020 to pick Patrick Williams, and the Sacramento Kings did the same in 2022, selecting Keegan Murray.

Overall, though, Toronto’s draft lottery history has been more miss than hit. They jumped to No. 1 in 2006, selecting Andrea Bargnani in what turned out to be a disappointing draft class. In 1996, they moved up one spot to No. 2 and took Marcus Camby after the 76ers chose Allen Iverson. Otherwise, the Raptors have mostly stayed put or dropped down, as they did in 2024, 2011, 2003, 1999, and 1998.

So what does it mean for Toronto this year? Not much.

The Raptors will enter the lottery with a 7.5% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, a 31.9% chance of moving into the top four, and a 68.1% chance of picking between No. 7 and No. 11. The most likely outcome is No. 8, where they have a 34.1% chance of landing, which would mean getting jumped by one lower-seeded lottery team.

Monday’s lottery is a significant moment for Toronto, but it is just one piece of a much larger puzzle. Even if the Raptors get lucky and land a top pick, the real work begins with identifying the right players, developing that talent, and assembling a roster capable of contending. Whether they end up with Duke standout Cooper Flagg or a prospect further down the board, the focus has to be on maximizing the opportunity.

After all, Toronto won the 2019 championship without a single top pick on the roster. Talent matters, but how you build around it matters more.

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