The Toronto Raptors need RJ Barrett

I’ll be honest: I sat down to write this piece right after RJ Barrett’s injury, I wanted to hypothesize on the two potential ways that Barrett’s absence could go. Option one: he misses time, and the Raptors look amazing. Ja’Kobe Walter or Gradey Dick slots in seamlessly to the starting lineup, amplifying the skills of the remaining four starters.

Or, option two: the Raptors look like a shell of themselves and come to the realization that Barrett is a necessary piece of the Raptors’ ecosystem.

That speaks to how fast things move in the NBA. Since I originally had the idea for this piece the Raptors have played four games without Barrett. And in those four games, it became clearer and clearer as each one passed that what Barrett injects into the Raptors as a secondary, tertiary, or quaternary scorer is essential to the style of basketball that they play.

One of my favourite meals in the world and favourite things to cook are these incredible juicy pork chops. The pork chops are well-seasoned, full of flavour, and absolutely delicious. Left at that you’d have a good dinner. But what truly elevates them to the next level, is the sauce that they simmer in. A simple sauce, just some stock, apple-cider vinegar, and honey. Nothing fancy. But the addition of the sauce takes the meal from just okay to absolutely mouth wateringly incredible. That is what Barrett provides the Raptors offense, he is the sauce! He elevates the other players, amplifying what they do best, making the offense go from kinda okay, to one of the best.

I mean, just look at the drop off in these offensive categories, via Zulfi Sheikh. (Ranks since Barrett has been out with injury first, then ranks prior to the injury in parentheses).

PPG: 29th (13th)
ORTG: 30th (10th)
Halfcourt ORTG: 30th (5th)
TS%: 30th (8th)
Transition freq: 14th (1st)

While the drop off can’t be entirely contributed to the absence of Barrett, I don’t think there’s many people that would argue that the offense has looked good without him. There have been fewer drives and a large overreliance on Brandon Ingram. So far this season, the team has been better on first-shot possessions in the half court with Barrett on the floor versus without by 8.8 points per 100 halfcourt plays, by far the highest mark of anyone on the team. He’s also increasing the Raptors’ transition frequency more than anyone other than Immanuel Quickley.

Those stats suggest that Barrett is an irreplacable cog in the offensive machine, but the truth is, the offense performs relatively the same whether he’s on or off the court. So what gives?

While the offense may produce at a similar output without Barrett, it’s far less efficient at doing so. Barrett is shooting the highest true-shooting percentage of his career, and the Raptors are shooting at their highest efficiency when he’s on the floor. He takes plenty of triples without pump-faking, is solid on them, and gets to the rim with more consistency than anyone else on the roster.

One of the clearest examples of what the Raptors lose without him was in this past week’s matchup with the Charlotte Hornets.

With six minutes to go in that game, the Raptors were up 100-88, seemingly on the verge of extending the win streak to ten in a row. What happened? The Raptors didn’t score again until the 42-second mark when Quickley hit a floater to take a 102-100 lead. In the fourth quarter and overtime combined the Raptors scored 24 total points.

It was the first symptom of a much larger issue that Samson spoke on after the game:

These have been important games to show that the Raptors offense is an ecosystem with many different things motivating it. Since Barrett’s gone down, Ingram has taken 79 shots across 3 games. The field goal percentage has dropped continuously across these games. It’s too large a burden to carry. And it’s a sluggish, pained process. Even when Barnes plays great, the Raptors still find themselves looking for more. I’m looking forward to Barrett’s return.

The Raptors, especially without Barrett, lean heavily on Ingram to provide the bulk of the offense. Ingram is an incredible player who’s done incredible things this season, but the Raptors need to have contingency plans in place for when he doesn’t have it going or when the defense snuffs him out. The offence needs to create more and better options.

It’s something that Barnes pointed out after the loss:

Just do a better job of when they double team him [Ingram], just try to find those cuts, find those outlets, of how we can help him out in those situations as well.

You may recall the first matchup with the Charlotte Hornets, another game that came down to the wire. In that one, when Ingram was doubled on one of the Raptors last offensive possessions, who was it that made the timely cut leading to a wide open bucket at the rim? Barrett. He very frequently offers more and better options.

Missing Barrett not only means that the Raptors are missing the skills he provides, but everyone else moves up a spot in the rotation, and it forces them out of their role. Darko Rajakovic has to change things, has to ask for a little bit more from everyone.

One of the biggest changes has been the uptick in Quickley drives. Barrett is one of the Raptors’ most prolific and efficient drivers, averaging 8.4 drives a game and shooting 57%. With him out of the lineup, Quickley has drastically increased his per game drives from 8.6 to 14.0 and as a result his efficiency has taken a dip. To put it in perspective, Barrett is scoring more points (5.5) on his 8.4 drives than Quickley is scoring (5.3) on his 14.0 drives.

Now, you could – and some probably will – argue that the Raptors’ defense is better without Barrett, which is maybe true. They did hold Cleveland and Indiana under 100 points over the past week, and Walter certainly provides high-level point-of-attack defense to the starting lineup. To his credit, Barrett does offer size and rebounding, and he doesn’t foul. Still, Walter’s defence has been great. But is the tradeoff worth it? The Raptors had a negative-4.3 net rating in four games without Barrett, with him they were positive-6.6. So based on solely that fact, it doesn’t seem so.

Barrett is a vital piece of this Raptors team, his driving, shooting, and efficiency have proven to be irreplacable as the roster is currently constructed. What he gives up defensively is more than made up by the offensive relief he offers to the players he shares the court with. He excels by doing a little bit of everything and doing it well. Just as the sauce elevates my pork chops, Barrett elevates the Raptors offense in ways that no one else has been able to do.

Some day there will be a new starting shooting guard for the Toronto Raptors. But if anything, this stretch has proven that that day will have to wait. Each game without Barrett has shown with increasing clarity that the Raptors don’t just benefit from Barrett, they need him.