Why KD, Kawhi, not MVP candidates Giannis, Harden, are NBA's best

Why doesn’t Giannis Antetokounmpo look as dominant in the playoffs?

A quick glance at Giannis’ playoff averages this season compared to last season indicates he’s reverted to last year's postseason’s form (25.7 ppg., 57% FG). Is that really what’s happening here? Not at all -– he averaged 10 more minutes per game last spring. Giannis is a much better player than he was last postseason, but scouting is making his teammates less efficient players, and, by virtue of their struggles, he also has become less efficient. (Side note: Mike Budenholzer better start playing Giannis more than 29.8 minutes per game and trim his rotation -– this isn’t youth basketball, Bud!)

Interestingly enough, Giannis’ per-36 minute stats these playoffs compared to the regular season are almost identical, except for his assists. He's averaging around 30 points, 13 rebounds and a steal and block or two each game. He averaged 6.5 assists per-36 minutes in the regular season and is down to 4.0 assists per-36 minutes in the playoffs.

Herein lies the first reason why Giannis looks different. With Celtics coach Brad Stevens employing a “wall” transition defense with Al Horford and help defenders stunting Antetokounmpo’s drives across the foul line, preventing him from having a runway to the basket, Giannis is forced to kick the ball out to open teammates for three-pointers. In the regular season, those open teammates were the likes of Malcolm Brogdon (43 percent on threes) and Tony Snell (40 percent). Because Brogdon and Snell are battling injuries, those open teammates in the playoffs are the likes of Pat Connaughton (28 percent) and Ersan Ilyasova (25 percent).

With his teammates missing open threes, the defense stays packed in on Giannis’ drives and he is unable to get as many easy buckets, which is the second reason for Giannis’ playoff drop-off. Check out these numbers:

Besides his three-point percentage (which mirrors his second-half regular-season percentage), Giannis’ percentages are down across the board. The 13-percent drop on field goals inside eight feet is particularly eye-opening and indicative of defensive schemes built around shutting down his drives. One more revealing stat: Giannis is attempting almost five fewer shots per game within five feet of the basket in the playoffs than he did in the regular season. Pretty staggering considering he lived in the paint all season, averaging over 11 shots within five feet.

In sum, Giannis isn’t playing much differently –- the opponents are just forcing his teammates to make open threes. Since his teammates aren’t making as many open threes, the defense is clogging the lane even more than usual, which is not allowing Giannis to take and make as many shots near the basket. Giannis will eventually figure it out -- the great ones always do -- but it might not happen this postseason

Why isn’t James Harden a cheat code anymore?

Finding the difference between regular-season Harden vs. playoff Harden this season is a little easier than doing the same for Giannis. Harden's playing the same minutes, averaging the same rebounds, assists, steals and blocks per game, and shooting approximately the same number of shots per game with the same kind of distribution. But he’s just not making shots or getting to the line as frequently as he did during the regular season. His scoring is down from 36 to 29 points per game and his shooting splits (FG-3FG-FT) are down from 44-37-88 to 38-34-88. He’s being forced into taking two fewer shots at the rim and two more shots -– typically floaters –- between five and nine feet from the basket (of which he’s only making 19 percent in the playoffs). Not allowing him the same driving lanes he’s accustomed to is a tribute to his opponents’ defensive schemes. But what about the slips in shooting percentages?

Well, this is nothing new for Harden in the playoffs. In the regular season the past five years, Harden has shot about 44 percent from the field and 36 percent from three every season. In the playoffs over that same stretch, those averages drop to 41 percent from the field and 32 percent from three. Every. Single. Spring.  We know Harden takes his conditioning seriously, so why the same drop-off in the playoffs ever year? It’s some combination of fatigue from Houston’s willingness to let Harden carry an insane load all regular season and over-reliance on him to take and create open shots against teams that spend weeks scouting him for his every tendency each spring. In essence, the Rockets are betting that Harden is good enough and has the endurance to get them 50-plus wins in the regular season, and then 16 more wins in the postseason even though they know his efficiency is going to drop off. It almost worked last season. It still might work this season, but it’s not looking great right now. (The Rockets trail the Warriors 2-0 in the Western Conference semifinals.)

Another interesting stat to keep an eye on in the playoffs is Harden’s free throw attempts per game, which have dropped from 11 in the regular season to 8.6 in the postseason. This may not seem like much, but two or three more points per game and we’re not having this discussion. Interestingly, the drop-off in free throws probably has a lot to do with referees having more time to “scout” and not fall for Harden’s foul-baiting ways.

Why do Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard look like the best players in the world?

Last Friday night, I was at an event that didn’t have any TVs for the first half of Warriors-Clippers Game 6. By the time I got to a bar to watch the game, Kevin Durant had 38 points … and it was only halftime. It was at this point that my three-year disdain of Durant's game subsided. My No. 1 covenant in sports? Appreciate greatness in the moment. For the first time in his Golden State tenure, the Warriors are breaking off from their “beautiful basketball” mantra, giving Durant the rock and relying on him to carry them to a title. And Durant is delivering in a way that only a pantheon-level player can deliver. Warriors coach Steve Kerr notices it, too, referring to him as “the best player in the world -– the most skilled player in the world” after the game.  

Less than 24 hours after I had conceded that Durant was the best player in the world, Kawhi Leonard gave me pause by channeling his inner-Michael Jordan in Game 1 vs. the 76ers, scoring 45 points on 16-for-23 shooting, grabbing 11 rebounds and playing superb defense. (Toronto trails the series 2-1.) I’m not sure who is playing better right now between Kawhi and KD, but both have been way more impressive than Giannis and Harden in the playoffs. Do the numbers back up what we’re seeing play out on the court?

The answer is yes, Durant and Leonard have, much like LeBron James typically does each spring, taken their games to a level that nobody else in these playoffs seems capable of reaching. Durant has increased his scoring from 26 to 34 points per game and his shooting efficiency has gone up from 49-38-88 to 53-41-91 splits. If carrying Golden State offensively weren’t enough, Durant has also morphed into a, dare I say, better version of Draymond Green on defense. He’s stuffing Clint Capela at the rim and forcing Harden into the aforementioned inefficient floaters with his weak-side presence. In Game 2, Durant even shut down Eric Gordon, who had a torrid Game 1 (27 points). Durant’s having his moments this postseason, and there’s nothing that can really stop him. Except maybe this guy …

In 2017, the last time we saw Kawhi Leonard in the playoffs, he eviscerated the Grizzlies in the first round and had the Spurs up 20 in Game 1 against Durant and the Warriors in the second round before Zaza Pachulia took him out with a dirty close-out. We weren’t sure we’d ever see Kawhi play that well again in his career, even after he averaged 26.7 points and 7.3 rebounds on 50-37-85 shooting this season. Well, believe it or not, this year’s version of playoff Kawhi is even better as he’s upped his scoring to 31.5 points per game and somehow increased his shooting efficiency to a level that would make Durant blush, 58-47-90 splits. If you look at his advanced shooting, he’s shooting at least 50 percent from every shot area of the court these playoffs with the exception of above-the-break-threes, which he’s hitting at a 44-percent clip. And lest we forget about his defense -– his current defensive rating is as low as it’s been in his playoff career (97.9 points per 100 possessions). He may have the personality of a white walker, but he’s playing like a dragon this postseason.

So, who’s the MVP in the league right now? To put it in Draymond Green’s terms: Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden are the best 82-game players, but Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard are the best 16-game players. The stats back up what your eyes have been telling you.