2022 Denver Broncos win total: Lots of positive buzz for the Broncos

Denver is one of a few teams that is perceived to have "won the offseason." They have a new, offensive-minded coach, a new starting quarterback and even new ownership.

Now the latter is not going to help much on the field this season but, provided the first two get on the same page quickly, Denver has a great chance to build on the 7-10 record they had last year.

Quarterback Russell Wilson is moving from Seattle to Denver and there is every reason to think he can "cook" his way to the Broncos' first winning season since 2016. The AFC West looks like the most competitive division in the NFL this season but Denver has the tools to compete.

Last season the Broncos were third in the NFL in points allowed but the offense was just a little too conservative with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm. With Wilson at the controls and Nathaniel Hackett on the sidelines, they will have an improved ability to compete in those close games where you need your offense to make a play (four times they lost by less than a TD last season and in three of those games they held their opponents under 20 points).

There seems to be no doubt the Broncos are improved, though sometimes with hype comes a loss of value. 

Denver Broncos win totals

Over 10.5 (+135)
Under 10.5 (-160)

Best Bet: Under 10.5

Buzz is great for fans and TV audiences but it usually sucks the value out of bets and that is what we are seeing with the Broncos. They are certainly improved, but a team with as much turnover in key spots rarely has the smoothest ride.

Denver gets Seattle in a "fun" homecoming game for Wilson to start the season. It is on Monday night and even though I believe the Broncos are the superior team the Seahawks will be fierce in that one.

September is not too hard with a couple of winnable home games but then they go to Las Vegas and the Los Angeles Chargers. I expect they will lose both of those tilts in a season that will go up and down throughout and might not ever offer a chance to rattle off a number of wins in a row.

Though they have a bye just before, I do not like the Broncos having to go to London to take on Jacksonville and then hit the road to take on a very physical Tennessee team. Those overseas games have been known to have lingering effects.

Four of the Broncos' last five games are against teams that played in the playoffs last season, including both games against Kansas City, the likely AFC West Division winner. The one game that is not against a playoff team from a year ago is the season finale at home against the Chargers. That looks to be a pivotal game for both teams but I don't see it getting the Broncos to 11 victories even if they are successful. 

There is no doubt Denver has improved from a year ago but getting to that number of wins looks unlikely. They are a classic team that is looking to add improved offense to a defense-led team but things rarely progress like that when there are so many moving parts. It is just tough to maintain elite defense when a new head coach is not into that side of the ball. 

With the market such as it is, taking the under is probably a pass bet. That is a heavy premium to pay.