A long-term deal for Dak Prescott? Forget it. He hasn't earned one.

It looks like Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ contractual dance is going to end with a compromise. All signs point to the Cowboys applying the exclusive franchise tag to their quarterback, which would pay him $31.6 million in 2020.

This is a win for Dallas, and a bullet dodged. A long-term contract for Prescott at this juncture would be a crap shoot. One extra year to figure out what he’s made of, even at a premium price, is a luxury option the Cowboys are right to use.

Prescott is a hard player to figure. He has plenty of doubters, but even they must admit that he has produced at a high level since entering the NFL in 2016. Prescott hasn’t missed a start, and his cumulative passer rating from 2016-2019 is 97, seventh best in the league among quarterbacks with at least 50 starts, per Pro Football Reference.

The only quarterbacks ahead of him are Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers. All but Cousins have been to a Super Bowl, and all but Cousins and Ryan have won a Super Bowl. Prescott has been statistically elite since entering the league.

Who is most responsible for that success, Prescott or his elite supporting cast? There is still no definitive answer. He is just 27-21 as a starter after his 13-3 rookie campaign, and last season, despite posting career highs in completions (388), attempts (596), yards (4,902) and touchdown passes (30), the Cowboys went a mere 8-8, and lost a de facto division title game against Philadelphia in Week 16.

Prescott shouldering a greater burden might have led to some gaudy statistical performances, but it also contributed to the Cowboys’ worst season since their disastrous 4-12 mark in 2015. More troubling was the fact that he failed to perform in the biggest games.

In what proved to be a pivotal three-game losing streak against New England, Buffalo and Chicago, Prescott threw just three touchdowns and two interceptions, completed just 59.5 percent of his passes, and posted a passer rating of 81.6, well below the 2019 league average of 90.4. Big-money franchise quarterbacks are supposed to be trump cards for their teams, not anchors. With a chance to redeem himself against the Eagles, he had arguably his worst game of the season, going 25-for-44 with no touchdowns and a 74.5 passer rating.

When the Cowboys needed Prescott to be at his best, they got the opposite. Perhaps the most alarming thing about his 2019 performance was the fact that five of Prescott’s six best games came against the Giants (twice), Redskins (twice) and Lions, teams that finished the season ranked 30^th, 27^th and 26^th in scoring defense, respectively. Beating up on bad opponents alone doesn’t make a quarterback great.

If Prescott had that kind of spotty, inconsistent season with Ezekiel Elliott (1,357 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns) and Amari Cooper (1,189 receiving yards, eight touchdowns) around, what will happen if the Cowboys can’t keep Cooper? That might be a reality, despite Dallas having $74 million in cap room.

Doling out a massive contract to a quarterback is a risk; any team that does it assumes that the quarterback will play well enough to not only validate the money they receive, but also cover up holes on the roster created as a result. There is no evidence that Prescott is capable of such feats. Dallas had Pro Football Focus’ fifth-best overall team grade last season, at 91.9. They were remarkably well-rounded in just about every facet. Yet, of the teams in the top-10 in overall grade, Dallas was the only one without a winning record.

The Chiefs, who ranked 12^th in PFF's overall grade, are an object lesson in the importance of quarterback play. Despite having Patrick Mahomes on a rookie deal, and therefore having flexibility in other areas of the roster, the Chiefs were sub-par on defense, and not all that great on the offensive line. It didn’t matter. Mahomes’ individual greatness propelled them to a Super Bowl. He proved himself, and will get a mega-deal, having earned every penny and then some.

Prescott hasn’t done anything close to that, and that’s why putting the franchise tag on him makes perfect sense for the Cowboys.