2022 Baltimore Ravens win total: How far can they go with Lamar Jackson?

The Ravens are one of the most consistent franchises in the NFL. They did miss the playoffs last year, though, finishing under .500 at 8-9. That makes their win total for 2022 a little curious because it is hard to see exactly how they improved from a season ago.

As you read this, Baltimore has still yet to sign QB Lamar Jackson to a long-term deal. He has always been a unique talent, just one with question marks. In addition, he was not as available as much as they needed last season. 

The questions about Jackson have generally been about him as a passer and the team did not help him out when they traded Marquise "Hollywood" Brown, its top receiver. This offense was always going to focus on TE Mark Andrews, but it can be tough when you can't take the top off the defense. 

Baltimore has always been comfortable playing a little differently than most NFL teams, which has generally worked. However, the seat might be getting hot under head coach John Harbaugh if the team has another losing season and questions will emerge regarding whether they can keep trying to win the way it has been.

The Ravens are one of the more interesting teams heading into the season. They are certainly not bad, but how good are they?

Baltimore Ravens Win Totals

Over 9.5 (-170)
Under 9.5 (+145)

The Pick: Under 9.5

The 9.5 win total seems reasonable but I am surprised that the over is the overwhelming favorite for Baltimore given the way things look heading into the season. 

Every team is dependent on their starting quarterback but maybe no team more than Baltimore. When backup Ty Huntley was forced to start 4 games in place of Jackson last season the Ravens went just 1-3.

Looking at this year's schedule I like the Ravens to start 2-0 with a game at the Jets and then home against Miami in Weeks 1 and 2. After that, the first quarter of the schedule stiffens significantly. A 2-3 start looks likely.

The AFC North Division is a massive wild card this season. Cincinnati was unexpectedly in the Super Bowl last year and should be very good again but the other three teams, including Baltimore, have question marks. Baltimore looks like it could be the next best of the bunch but what happens if Pittsburgh is adequate at quarterback or the Browns rally out of this Deshaun Watson morass and are a winning team? 

Baltimore should get a couple of easy wins at home against the likes of Atlanta and Carolina in the second half but beyond that, there are not a lot of gimmies. They close the season at Cincinnati in a game that the Bengals might not need to take the division but probably need to keep up with the likes of Buffalo or whoever wins the AFC West for the top spot in the AFC. Even if they got that win, that would only push them to 8 or maybe 9 wins in my projections, not over the top.

Baltimore is one of the biggest swing teams in the NFL this season. They won't go 4-13 or 13-4 but anywhere in between looks very possible. The payoff on the under is what makes this bet very attractive too.