2022 Miami Dolphins win total: Tua the key to success ... or failure
Miami had a very interesting offseason!
There was the hiring of a new coach and all the stuff that went down with the old one (and I think it is still yet to be resolved which doesn't help). Then Miami made a major trade to get receiver Tyreek Hill from Kansas City.
Miami is looking to put enough weapons around quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to see if he truly is a winning caliber signal caller in the NFL. I am not sold, which is one of the reasons I am down on Miami coming into the season.
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Playing in the AFC East has just a couple of gimme games (sorry Jets fans) but this team is still a long way from competing with Buffalo at the top of the division. I don't see them as a Wild Card team either unless the defense gets a lot better than expected.
Bringing in an offensive coach changes the dynamic of the team, presumably for the better. It will be interesting to see how it looks in an offense where the running game might not be as strong as it was for Mike McDaniel in San Francisco ... and with him calling the shots for the first time. There are just not a lot of guarantees in South Beach.
I am wading in cautiously.
2022 Miami Dolphins Win Total
Over 8.5 (-135)
Under 8.5 (+115)
Best Bet: Under 8.5
I understand the reasons for optimism but if you don't believe in a team's quarterback it is hard to get to that over. Tagovailoa has more help this season but that only takes this team so far.
In general, the schedule is not too crazy but the first month is going to make it hard for a new regime to get comfortable quickly. I do not expect them to win any of their first four games and other than the opener against New England they are probably not going to be favored in any of them.
That fifth game is at the Jets. If they lose that one then this first season is really going to be off the rails. There are a few winnable games after that though it is would be better if dates against Detroit and Chicago were at home instead of back to back on the road. That would have made them true gimmes. Also, their game against Cleveland now looks like one that quarterback Deshaun Watson is going to be eligible for, for better or worse. (That is just before their bye week.)
After their bye week, they have a home game against Houston and close the season at home against the Jets. Those are the only two games in the second half I feel really good about. After that Houston game, they get into a really tough stretch and play four road games in five weeks including back to back to back road games at San Francisco, the Chargers, and Buffalo. That stretch could have some very ugly results and the home game they do have is against Green Bay is another spot they are likely to be underdogs.
Miami is a team that definitely looks better than they did a year ago, but that does not mean more wins are coming. Even if Tagovailoa is improved that gives them more of a fighting chance, though it is unlikely to make them favorites in a lot of those spots.
This is a nice value play getting that under at +115. I think as things evolve that price will get worse.
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