2022 NFL Draft bets: Position totals in the first round

We're just two days away from the 2022 NFL Draft, and the betting market is starting to solidify in a lot of places, based on the latest rumors and buzz around the league.

As we continue our prep for the draft, one area that catches the eye is on positional totals in the first round.

There are currently seven positions DraftKings has set lines on.

Cornerbacks

Over 4.5 (+120) | Under 4.5 (-150)

Offensive Linemen

Over 7.5 (+155) | Under 7.5 (-200)

Quarterbacks

Over 2.5 (-250) | Under 2.5 (+190)

Running Backs

Over 0.5 (+145) | Under 0.5 (-190)

Safeties

Over 1.5 (-285) | Under 1.5 (+220)

Tight Ends

Over 0.5 (+450) | Under 0.5 (-700)

Wide Receivers

Over 6.5 (-105) | Under 6.5 (-125)

As you may have noticed, there aren't many odds here worth betting on. The expectation is certainly that multiple safeties will be drafted in Round 1, but we're not going to bet on something at -285.

There is one market that remains competitively priced, that being the Wide Receivers. This line was 5.5 a few weeks ago and has moved up to 6.5, but it deserves more attention.

Top Wide Receiver Prospects

There are five players who appear to be surefire locks to be drafted in the first round, them being:

• Garrett Wilson
• Jameson Williams
• Drake London
• Chris Olave
• Treylon Burks

To consider betting the over, we need two more prospects to go in Round 1. The most likely candidates based on betting odds and rankings from around the industry:

• Jahan Dotson
• Christian Watson
• Skyy Moore
• George Pickens

A Note on the Wide Receiver Market

It feels important to acknowledge all of the movement in the NFL this offseason with the wide receiver position.

Star receivers Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill were both traded and handed huge contracts, while young receivers AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin and DK Metcalf all want new deals.

Money talks, and the current market for star receivers has exploded. A reasonable conclusion could be that teams are seeing how much it costs to get a star receiver in his prime, deciding those resources could be better spent and opting to grow their receiver room through the draft.

That would make this betting market more intriguing. The Packers and Chiefs were content sending away their quarterbacks' top options, and now are both armed with two first-round picks. It would be a mild surprise to see neither of these teams select a receiver.

Teams in Play to Draft a First-Round Receiver

There's a reasonable argument that eight to nine teams have a need at receiver. This is just one writer's opinion, but the teams that stick out for a potential landing spot for WRs:

• Atlanta
• NY Jets
• Washington
• Philadelphia
• New Orleans
• Green Bay
• Tennessee
• Tampa Bay
• Kansas City

If the Jets don't trade for Deebo Samuel prior to the draft, they feel certain to take a pass-catcher at No. 10. Philadelphia and New Orleans both have two selections in the middle of the draft and have a reasonable need for receivers.

The latter four teams here are where we need to really consider whether this market has enough juice to bet on.

The Packers are devoid of wide receiver talent, and after the draft drama of year's pasts, it would be a massive surprise to see them not give Aaron Rodgers a new receiver.

Tennessee signed Robert Woods, but with AJ Brown wanting a new deal, they could be in play for a receiver here. Even if they bring back Brown, the offense could use another weapon in the passing game.

Tampa Bay has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but with Antonio Brown out of the picture, and their offense's proclivity for passing, they could scoop up a WR here to add to a talented roster.

The Chiefs current receiver room is JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marques Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman. That's an okay group, and many see Kansas City loading up with defense to start.

Final Verdict

This is tight. There are plenty of talented offensive linemen and defensive contributors slated to go in the latter half of this first round, and the run on receivers may begin in the second round.

For context, here are the outlier receivers' current over/unders for draft positioning:

• Christian Watson: Over/Under 39.5
• Skyy Moore: Over/Under 35.5
• George Pickens: Over/Under 36.5
• Jahan Dotson Over/Under 31.5

DraftKings only projects Dotson to go in the first out of that latter group, suggesting that getting to seven wide receivers in the first may be a stretch.

Officially, the lean here is to bet on the under, set at -125 on DraftKings. It's a sweaty bet, but it feels like the right approach. Alternatively, consider betting on the first receiver drafted. We like Jameson Williams, whose odds have risen to +175 since this writing.