If this year's free agency period has done anything for the Jacksonville Jaguars, it has made April's draft as important as ever.
After no new signings made since free agency began last Monday, the Jaguars are set to rely on the draft to retool a team that is hoping to make a run in 2023.
“The draft is a funny thing. We’re fortunate to be down at 24 this year, and you just play the waiting game," Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said at the NFL Scouting Combine earlier this month.
"Obviously, if there’s a player ahead of us that you may want to grab, you try to make a move to grab that player, but a lot of times, when you’re in the bottom third of the draft, you just wait and sit. Maybe there’s teams that want to come up, and maybe you can gain more capital, draft capital, as you sit there at 24. A lot of options, and hopefully the player that we target is sitting at 24, and we take him.”
With the NFL Draft's first-round and the Jaguars' impending selection at No. 24 overall coming fast, we are going to take a look throughout the offseason on what outside experts think the Jaguars will or should do with their first-round pick.
This time, we take a look at ESPN Mel Kiper's most recent mock and weigh in on how we feel about the pick.
No. 24: EDGE Will McDonald IV, Iowa State
Pass-rusher is going to be a popular pick for the Jaguars after losing Arden Key, so it isn't surprising to see Kiper go with an edge rusher just a year after the Jaguars took Travon Walker at No. 1 overall.
Still, Kiper's selection here is a surprising and new one, with the veteran draft analyst slotting Iowa State edge rusher Will McDonald IV at No. 24 overall.
"After years of spending big money in free agency, the Jaguars have largely stayed out of the fray this year -- they have stuck to re-signings so far. This young roster is going to grow and improve together, and that's a good thing for Jacksonville fans. There aren't many obvious holes on this depth chart, but the loss of Arden Key in free agency means there are edge-rushing snaps to be had. Enter McDonald, who had a really strong Senior Bowl and showed off great physical attributes at the combine," Kiper said.
At 6-foot-4, 239 pounds, McDonald and Key are actually very similar in size, and both are best when coordinators let them get after quarterbacks. McDonald is an explosive player who had 34 sacks over four college seasons. I expect Travon Walker, the No. 1 overall pick last year, to make a second-season leap -- the Jags' defense could get much better.
Kiper makes a surprising pick here for a few reasons. For one, McDonald is rarely seen this highly in most mocks. Most in the public probably see him as a top-50 pick, whereas Kiper has him going top-25.
Secondly, Kiper has the Jaguars taking him over some high-profile names, including Georgia tight end Darnell Washington and Clemson defensive lineman Bryan Bresee. Even with a big need on the edge, it would be a mild surprise to see the Jaguars pass on either of those players in most scenarios.
In short, it looks like Kiper placed a bigger premium on replacing Arden Key's production than with going with the best player available. This makes sense to a degree when you consider no pass-rusher was more efficient for the Jaguars in 2022 than Key. While playing mostly as a rotational player and sub-package edge rusher, Key led the Jaguars' defensive line and edge rushers in pass-rush win-rate and was second on the team in pressures and quarterback hits despite not being an every-down player.
Still, McDonald has a profile that raises some red flags. Sub-240 pound edge rushers simply do not go in the first-round, with even the smallest recent first-round pass-rushers (Bruce Irvin, Leonard Floyd, Vic Beasley, Brian Burns, and K'Lavon Chaisson) all weighing heavier than McDonald did at the combine.
McDonald is a long and explosive pass-rusher, but this pick could remind many of the Chaisson pick from 2020.
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