Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Cap Space: $34.5 million
Draft Picks: 7
- 1st (No. 26)
- 2nd (No. 57)
- 3rd (No. 89)
- 4th (No. 126)
- 6th (No. 203)
- 7th (No. 244)
- 7th (No. 255, comp)
Notable Free Agents:
- WR Mike Evans
- QB Baker Mayfield
- S Antoine Winfield Jr.
- LB Lavonte David
- LB Devin White
- DT Greg Gaines
- OL Matt Feiler
- DL William Gholston
- S Ryan Neal
- OL Aaron Stinnie
- RB Chase Edmonds
- K Chase McLaughlin
Top Three Needs
1 – Wide Receiver
For now, let’s assume the Buccaneers and Mayfield work out an agreement for him to stay in Tampa. The season was a bit of a rollercoaster, but in the end advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs was leaps and bounds better than just about anyone thought the Bucs would be last year. Instead of putting the team in the mix for one of the top quarterback prospects this offseason, Mayfield had a career year, topping 4,000 yards passing for the first time ever and setting a new career high with 28 touchdown passes.
Let’s also assume the team uses the tag on Winfield Jr. given his age and status as one of the top safeties in the league. That leaves a lot of money spent and still no contract for Evans — and the two sides weren’t particularly close on a number during talks last summer. All Evans did since then was go out and record his 10th-straight 1,000-yard season and score a career-high 13 touchdowns. He’ll be 31 in August but is showing zero signs of slowing down. Some team is going to add to his lucrative bankroll, whether it’s Tampa Bay or a different squad in free agency.
If Evans comes back, the team will preserve the duo of him and WR Chris Godwin which was key for Mayfield last year. If not, the team will have work to do to make sure Mayfield still has a quality supporting cast. Both players are also on the older side. Evans is on the other side of 30 and Godwin just turned 28. It wouldn’t hurt the Buccaneers to take a long-term approach even if they have a few other younger players at receiver who are interesting developmental options. It’s become more and more important not to be weak at receiver in the NFL, and in the case of the Buccaneers hitting on a rookie receiver could help rebalance the roster financially.
2 – Edge Rusher
The other big pressing need for the Buccaneers is at edge rusher where veteran OLB Shaquil Barrett was cut to avoid paying a $15 million option bonus this offseason. Barrett was still a solid player but his sack total had fallen off a cliff the past two seasons due in part to a torn Achilles. He could be back but at a much lower contract.
Right now the Bucs have former first-round OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and last year’s third-round OLB Yaya Diaby as bookend edge rushers. Diaby had a solid debut season with 7.5 sacks which actually was good enough to lead the team. His emergence cut into the snaps for Tryon-Shoyinka who had just five sacks, though that still bested his previous career high of four.
Buccaneers HC Todd Bowles is known for pressure packages that create a lot of the team’s sacks rather than purely relying on his front four to beat opponents. Still, Tampa Bay could stand to improve the quality of its edge rushing group by a fair amount, even if Diaby takes another step forward.
3 – Linebacker
White’s star has fallen drastically since the Buccaneers’ Super Bowl run when he was legitimately one of the most impactful players on the field. He remains a superb athlete but a shockingly poor linebacker given the hype. There does not seem to be a lot of steam behind him and Tampa Bay giving things another go, though White’s actual experience in free agency could change things.
The veteran David might still have a little gas left in the tank but he’s far closer to the end of his career than the beginning. If he’s back, it’ll likely be for just a cheap one-year deal. Britt replaced White in base defense but ideally he’d be the strongside linebacker for Tampa Bay’s base defense and not a full-time player.
This means the Buccaneers need both an upgrade over Britt and a long-term successor for David this offseason.
One Big Question
Can the Bucs and Mayfield dodge regression if his supporting cast takes a step back?
In hindsight, the general public got two things very wrong about the Buccaneers in 2023. People forgot how solid the supporting cast was with experienced, strong and proud veteran talent up and down the roster. Instead, they focused on how much of a liability Mayfield seemed to be on paper at quarterback. They got that wrong too (and I’ll count myself among “they”).
Quarterbacks are important but it is still a team sport and supporting cast matters a lot too. That was easy to forget with Mayfield who before arriving in Tampa Bay last offseason had just concluded two brutal years — his final injury-riddled season in Cleveland, a stint with the woeful Panthers, and then finishing out the season with the Rams learning the system on the fly after being cut by Carolina.
The truth is Mayfield is somewhere around league average as a quarterback. He’s not a top-ten or even top-fifteen option, but somewhere in the next ten spots is probably fair depending on how good his supporting cast is.
That’s why I once again have some trepidation about Mayfield and the Buccaneers going into the 2024 season. The offense will take a huge step back if the team loses Evans in free agency, which seems like a real possibility if the Bucs are priced out. Even if they can keep Evans, there are going to be challenges with Mayfield learning yet another new system after the division-rival Panthers poached OC Dave Canales and a major chunk of the offensive coaching staff.
Tampa Bay hired former Rams and Kentucky OC Liam Coen to replace Canales, and Mayfield’s recommendation played a role in the decision as Coen worked closely with him when he was getting up to speed in Los Angeles late in 2022. That’s still a significant variable, and that’s not the only question facing the team. Tampa Bay had the benefit of playing in a horrid division and were 4-7 at one point with long odds for the playoffs. Bowles is a lot like Mayfield in that he still hasn’t proven he’s any better than average as a head coach.
Combined with some natural regression to the mean, and overall the outlook for Tampa Bay just feels tepid this offseason.
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