2025 Atlanta Falcons projected win total, prediction
The Atlanta Falcons have gone all-in to snap their seven-year playoff drought, but will it be enough?
Below, we take an early look at the Falcons' projected win total for the 2025 season.
Regular-season win total: 7.5 (BetMGM)
Outlook: Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will be Atlanta's fifth Week 1 starting quarterback in as many seasons, joining Matt Ryan (2021), Marcus Mariota (2022), Desmond Ridder (2023) and Kirk Cousins (2024).
After using the No. 8 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to select Penix, the Falcons are motivated to see him succeed where previous potential Ryan successors failed.
He showed promise in limited opportunities as a rookie. In Week 17 on "Sunday Night Football," Penix made a tight-window throw between two defenders for the tying touchdown on fourth-and-goal against the Commanders late in the fourth quarter after struggling through three quarters against last year's NFC runner-up.
The Falcons will be a threat to win the division if Penix takes a Year 2 leap. Atlanta has solid weapons around Penix, including three top-10 picks: tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receiver Drake London and running back Bijan Robinson.
London and Robinson have justified their draft status with sublime play to start their careers, while Pitts, 2021's No. 4 overall pick, has frustrated since posting 1,026 yards as a rookie. According to NFL Pro data, last year, he ranked 28th out of 34 qualifying tight ends in expected points added (EPA) per target and had a completion rate 2.2 percentage points worse than expected.
Pitts is playing on his fifth-year rookie option in 2025, which could incentivize him to bounce back before negotiating his second NFL contract.
Atlanta's offensive line should be a plus, although it can't afford center Ryan Neuzil to take a step back after he filled in admirably for former center Drew Dalman, who signed with the Chicago Bears in free agency, a season ago.
Neuzil ranked 16th in ESPN's 2024 pass-block win rate rankings among interior offensive linemen, and the unit also boasts three-time (2022-24) second-team All-Pro right guard Chris Lindstrom and 11-year veteran left tackle Jake Matthews. Left guard Matthew Bergeron and right tackle Kaleb McGary have been consistent as well, with Bergeron starting all 34 games since being selected in the second-round (No. 38 overall) of the 2023 NFL Draft, while 2019 first-round pick (No. 31 overall) McGary is one of the least-flagged players at his position, being penalized just three times last year. (h/t PFF)
Defensively, the Falcons are led by Jessie Bates, arguably the league's best safety. For all the deserved hits general manager Terry Fontenot has taken, signing Bates to a four-year, $64.02 million contract during 2023 free agency was his masterpiece.
In two seasons with the Falcons, Bates has 10 interceptions, seven forced fumbles and two touchdowns.
Atlanta could struggle to stop the run. It ranked 18th in yards per attempt allowed in 2024 and lost defensive tackle Grady Jarrett in free agency.
But the pass-rush should be improved. The Falcons selected Jalon Walker at No. 15 overall, then questionably traded next year's first-round pick to the Rams to add James Pearce Jr. at No. 26, while also signing Leonard Floyd as a free agent.
Our take: Since 2018, the Falcons have only exceeded their preseason over-under win total once (2022) and have fallen short of expectations by an average of 1.2 games per season. Penix will be a difference-maker and lead Atlanta to its first winning season since 2017.
Predicted win total: 9
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