49ers' blockbuster trade for Christian McCaffrey increases Super Bowl odds
The San Francisco 49ers made a huge bet late Thursday night when they traded four future draft picks in exchange for former All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey. It turns out the 49ers weren't the only ones making bets on their season.
Per OddsChecker, the move quickly lifted San Francisco's title odds to the most popular bet in football. They have the fifth-best odds to win the Super Bowl, trailing the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Already without their first-round selection in the 2023 draft due to the Trey Lance trade, the team parted with second-, third- and fourth-round picks in the upcoming draft in landing McCaffrey. With their first draft pick not coming until day three, the 49ers set the barometer for how their season should be graded: anything short of a Super Bowl win will be a failure.
General manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan must have felt like something needed to be done to shake San Francisco awake after its dispiriting loss to the Atlanta Falcons. This trade should suffice.
The 49ers entered the season with the seventh-best odds of winning the Super Bowl, but after their debacle against Atlanta on Oct. 16, their odds took a big hit as they dropped to 24-to-1. They have since risen as high as 12-to-1 at sportsbooks following the McCaffrey deal.
Oddsmakers and bettors might be hopping on the 49ers' bandwagon, but that doesn't mean everyone was a fan of the trade.
Several people took to Twitter to express shock that San Francisco would trade so many future picks for a running back, ignoring the fact McCaffrey's ability as a receiver makes him much more than that. Defenses are going to have to formulate schemes to defend him, as well as wide receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle. Good luck with that.
That's not to say there isn't some significant risk involved in the move. Giving up so much when there's a juggernaut in Buffalo that doesn't appear to be stopping for anyone is certainly a choice, but on the other hand, if the 49ers were to waste an elite defense with inconsistent offensive production, the backlash directed at Lynch and Shanahan would be swift.
That is still a viable concern even with the trade. As many games as Jimmy Garoppolo has won for the team, relying on his and McCaffrey's health to sustain the offense is a gamble in and of itself. Garoppolo has missed 24 games due to injury since 2018, while McCaffrey missed 23 games from 2020-21. When the defense is first in the league in yards allowed (255.8) and second in points allowed (14.8), however, it makes the decision to pursue a championship at all costs an easier one to make.
San Francisco is currently 3-3 and tied for first in the NFC West. With no one separating themselves in the division, Lynch weighed the odds and determined that trading for McCaffrey gave his team a better shot to compete for a division and league championship. It's an aggressive move that, if it pays off the way the team expects, will lead to a championship parade and not a draft-day funeral.
No one's ever hit a home run without swinging first.
More must-reads: