Unsurprisingly after going within one play of winning Super Bowl 58, the San Francisco 49ers are tied for the highest win total in the NFL in the 2024 season.
San Francisco's win total was set at 11.5 by DraftKings Sportsbook, tied with the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens, who had the best regular-season record in the league last season at 13-4.
The last five seasons have seen San Francisco surpass 11.5 wins three times (2019, 2022 and 2023). The Niners went 10-7 in 2021 after going 6-10 in the 2020 season played under COVID-19 restrictions in which they were ravaged by injuries.
Still, the under (-150) is viewed as the more likely outcome than the over (+125) by bettors right now.
There is understandable reason for that.
San Francisco finished 12-5 in the regular season, though the Niners' Week 18 meeting with the Los Angeles Rams was a meaningless encounter in which both teams rested starters.
In 2024, they will face nine teams who made the playoffs in 2023, including rematches with the Chiefs, Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. The 49ers needed comebacks to beat both the Packers and Lions in the playoffs last season and their game against Green Bay will be on the road, as will meetings with four other 2023 playoff teams (Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Rams) and another clash with the Minnesota Vikings. The 49ers have not beaten the Vikings on the road since the 1992 season.
With the Rams likely to present a more concerted challenge in the NFC West, the 49ers have a host of hurdles to navigate in their quest to get back to the Super Bowl.
Despite losing Arik Armstead from the defensive line, the San Francisco defense looks to be improved, and logic suggests having a coordinator in Nick Sorensen who has spent his career in that system will deliver an improvement on what predecessor Steve Wilks produced in his sole season in that capacity.
But having a first-time defensive play-caller is also reason to perhaps dial down the optimism a touch. Considering that, the problems on the offensive line that for now remain unsolved and a very difficult schedule, it's not difficult to see a scenario in which the Niners only win 11 games.
Recent history says the over will hit but, even for a team as consistent as the 49ers, living up to an extremely lofty win total is no guarantee.
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