49ers' unusually long grace period cannot last another year

Entering their current regime’s third season, the 49ers stand in one of the stranger positions in recent NFL history.

The two Kyle Shanahan-John Lynch 49ers teams proved next to nothing, yet edition No. 3 teems with team-on-the-rise buzz. The 49ers are 10-22 since 2017, but Lynch and Shanahan backed into a reality that allows them only to be judged on roughly seven of those games (the ones when Jimmy Garoppolo took the first and last 49ers snaps). Perhaps the sole reason for this optimism, San Francisco's quarterback has thrown fewer passes through five seasons than almost any competent QB in 40 years.

Little is still known about the Shanahan-Lynch blueprint's capabilities entering Year 3, making otherwise unrealistic aspirations seemingly within reach. Simultaneously, this 49ers iteration must achieve a modicum of success to avoid ownership making changes. Although Lynch and Shanahan have enjoyed one of the more relaxed timelines of any NFL power structure in recent years, sneaky stakes exist for the 2019 49ers.

Thanks to the 49ers being the first franchise to fire head coaches in consecutive years since this same organization axed the men in charge of its 1976, ’77 and ’78 teams, Shanahan and Lynch received six-year contracts in 2017. They have just three more wins than the Jim Tomsula-Chip Kelly years produced. If Garoppolo cannot prove his bosses right this season, it will be difficult to see how the Shanahan-Lynch pairing stays in place in 2020.

Lynch and Shanahan bought themselves time by starting the '17 season without a long-term quarterback option. Garoppolo's delay kept what could be labeled an extended preseason going. Many owners have pulled the plug quickly regardless of whether a franchise quarterback is in place, with the likes of Vance Joseph and Mike Mularkey (to name two recent cases) winning more games than the 2017-18 49ers yet being fired after two years. Garoppolo’s unique NFL standing has allowed the 49ers to attempt a true rebuild –- rather than the rebuild-in-name-only processes most coaches are afforded.

Garoppolo needs to exit this season as an upper-echelon quarterback. If he doesn’t, the franchise -– thanks to ace contract negotiator Paraag Marathe’s frontloaded structure –- can move on from the former trade acquisition with little financial penalty ($4.2 million in dead money) in 2020. That would obviously not be the preferred course of action, given this regime’s stake in the ex-Patriots backup.

Going into his sixth season with just 361 pass attempts, Garoppolo is unlike any high draft choice in decades. Excepting the 2018 rookie class, 24 quarterbacks drafted in the first or second rounds since 1979 played five seasons without throwing 370 passes. Of them, only Tommy Maddox -– a 1992 first-rounder who left football in his mid-20s before becoming 2002’s Comeback Player of the Year -– could be reasonably categorized as a capable starter. San Francisco’s 28-year-old quarterback is about to be the above list's icon or become the most surprising of Tom Brady's backups to fail elsewhere.

Garoppolo's still-uncertain arc aside, the franchise played this appropriately. The Browns were set to trade a top-10 pick for Garoppolo; the 49ers surrendered a second-rounder. A team that has hovered off the NFC’s contention radar for five years has no choice but to exercise patience with this kind of commodity. Garoppolo has waited longer than most NFL passers to prove his value, and having spent this year rehabbing that ACL tear, he may still have to wait until his age-29 season for optimal results.

Still, the 49ers are right to chase that five-game flash. Garoppolo's slim 2017 49ers work sample established a high ceiling. His 67.4 completion percentage, 1,560 passing yards and wins over two playoff teams were welcome feats for a previously 1-10 49ers team. But the first-time starter’s work under pressure (78.3 completion rate, 9.9 yards per attempt) was the NFL's best that year, per Pro Football Focus. His 29.9 QBR through two-plus 2018 games represents a slight concern; the 2017 surge overrides it. And in adding Tevin Coleman and second-round wideout Deebo Samuel, the franchise gave Garoppolo a better supporting cast.

Fortunate a 4-12 record secured the No. 2 overall pick (which hadn’t happened since the 2011 draft), the 49ers turned Garoppolo's setback into defensive end Nick Bosa. If they cannot progress defensively with five first-round linemen, changes are coming. San Francisco has gone five seasons without an edge defender surpassing seven sacks and dropped to 27th in pass defense DVOA last season. The 49ers did not add any surefire secondary help.

Lynch oversees the team’s defensive personnel and has observed his two biggest investments –- 2017 first-rounders Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster -– disappoint on and off the field. The 49ers signed injury-prone cornerback Jason Verrett (five games played since 2016) and appear set to use PFF’s lowest-graded 2018 corner, 2017 third-round pick Ahkello Witherspoon, again. And the Richard Sherman who patrolled the Legion of Boom’s left flank has not resurfaced yet. This defense has letdown potential, and it could doom the architect.

It is not inconceivable the 49ers drop Lynch after 2019. Shanahan’s past and 2018 work with QB Nick Mullens and tight end George Kittle will earn him another year, regardless of how Garoppolo fares. A 2020 coaching search, after the team hired the prize of the 2017 coaching carousel, would be a sobering exercise. Without such a pedigree, Lynch may need to see his defenders take steps forward to avoid the 49ers replacing him with a more experienced executive.

The 49ers have not shown enough to warrant the hype they have received. Too many injury- and trajectory-related variables exist, and the franchise is not working with the built-in advantage of a rookie quarterback contract like the Browns, the 49ers' AFC buzz counterparts. Potential exists, but this is a pivotal year on the franchise’s timeline. The third-year overseers have used up their atypically long grace period. 

If 2019 veers closer to the past two years than a prospective postseason path emerging, the Lynch-Shanahan-Garoppolo troika will likely not be together in 2020.