The closer we get to the NFL Draft (we're now just one week away!), the less likely it appears the San Francisco 49ers will trade Brandon Aiyuk. The overwhelming likelihood is that the Niners will want 2024 capital for their leading receiver. If draft day comes and goes without a deal, then it simply becomes a question of whether the 49ers can get a deal done and avoid having Aiyuk play on the fifth-year option.
But the argument for a trade is that, in a world where they are likely going to have to pay Brock Purdy next offseason, the 49ers can use the capital they receive for Aiyuk to set their quarterback and their team up for sustainable success well beyond the 2024 season.
A to.Z Sports' Destin Adams laid out a scenario in which they could do so in his latest mock draft.
Adams had the 49ers trading Aiyuk to the Pittsburgh Steelers for the 20th overall pick.
He then had San Francisco using that choice in another deal to move up five spots and select Aiyuk's replacement, with the 49ers also dealing the third-rounder (94th overall) and a fourth (135th overall) to the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for pick 15 and a sixth-rounder (191).
With the 15th overall pick, the 49ers select LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.
A different flavor to Aiyuk
Thomas would not be a like-for-like replacement for Aiyuk. He is a different flavor of receiver whose downfield upside would place more of an emphasis on Purdy to attack deep.
Purdy's downfield success has surprised many as he has proved extremely effective at pushing the ball deep despite not having an elite arm. He finished the 2023 season, per Pro Football Focus, with a league-high 12 touchdowns and just one interception on throws of 20 yards or more.
Thomas' arrival would demand Purdy continue to excel in that regard. He brings an enticing combination of size and speed having clocked a 40-yard dash time of 4.3 seconds at a little over 6ft 2in and 209 pounds. Thomas can consistently stack defenders, generate separation and maintain it. He regularly wins with his short-area burst but also has excellent stop-star quickness, which not only aids him on the timing routes back to the ball that are a staple of the Kyle Shanahan offense but also makes him a big-time threat on double moves.
Thomas has shown some intriguing nuance as a route-runner and is adept at winning by varying his route speeds. However, the 49ers would still be in essence dealing an All-Pro and one of the game's premier route-runners for a rookie with one year of top-tier college production, albeit a player with tremendous physical traits.
That bet on traits is one Adams has the 49ers making throughout his three-round mock.
A second trade
The 49ers, in this scenario, would still have their original first (31st overall). However, Adams has the Niners dealing it in a move that enables the Las Vegas Raiders to land their quarterback in Michael Penix Jr.
Las Vegas sends the 44th overall pick in the second round, a fifth-rounder (148th overall) and a 2025 second-round pick in exchange for pick 31.
With the 44th pick, the 49ers make a less surprising move than in the first round, taking Washington OT Roger Rosengarten.
Rosengarten was twice mocked to the 49ers in the first round by Mel Kiper Jr. and San Francisco has only served to increase talk they could take him early by attending a private workout in Seattle last weekend.
Not widely viewed as a first-round pick, Rosengarten has connections to the 49ers having been coached by Christian McCaffrey's father Ed in high school and worked with former San Francisco left tackle Joe Staley during the pre-draft process.
Rosengarten has the foot speed the 49ers look for in pass protection and is an excellent athlete in space. He aced the Combine, earning an A to Z Sports athletic composite score of 93.9 percent, ninth among offensive linemen.
A lack of arm length will be a concern at the next level but Rosengarten, who compares well to Staley athletically, did not allow a sack in 625 pass block snaps. If the 49ers are ready to bet on Rosengarten as their future right tackle, it's a well-educated gamble.
Secondary depth
The 49ers didn't have to trade their original second-rounder (63rd overall) to move up to grab Thomas, and Adams has them using it on a very intriguing athlete at a position of need.
San Francisco is well set up for this season at cornerback with Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir backed up by Isaac Yiadom and Rock Ya-Sin. However, all four of those players are free agents next offseason.
There's a chance the 49ers may struggle to pay both Ward and Lenoir in 2025, so adding a successor to one of them in the draft would be smart.
The successor in this case is Iowa State cornerback T.J. Tampa.
Tampa has excellent size and arm length for the outside corner role, with his alluring traits allowing him to rack up 16 pass breakups over his final two seasons with the Cyclones.
Doubts over his speed and ability to hold up against more elusive route-runners may give some teams pause, but Tampa's physicality in coverage and run support would certainly appeal to San Francisco.
The likely and desired outcome of the Aiyuk saga is that he signs a long-term deal with the 49ers. But, in this draft, the 49ers were able to replace him, find their starting right tackle and a potential future starter at corner while also acquiring future capital by trading pick 31.
It's a mock that builds a compelling case for executing a draft-day trade. Whether the 49ers' resolve will be tested next Thursday is one of the most intriguing subplots of the entire draft.
More must-reads: