The highly anticipated NFC Championship Game between the 49ers and Lions has so many storylines that the media can’t possibly cover them all. Whether it’s the Lions trying to reach their first-ever Super Bowl or the unlikely storyline around Brock Purdy, there are so many different stories going on. Sometimes, the game isn’t always decided by the big storylines such as the passing yards of Jared Goff, the injury to Mark Andrews, or the contrasting playstyles of the two teams. Sometimes, it is the smaller storylines or the stats that don’t get talked about that end up being the difference.
In the case of this NFC Championship Game, here are three storylines that aren’t being talked about enough.
1. Will the NFC Championship Come Down to the Lions Defense vs 49ers Offense on 3rd Down?
Detroit only gives up 36.77% on third-down defense. San Francisco ranks third in the league, converting 48.72% of the game, including 57.5% in the last three games. One of these two is going to get exposed and it very well could be the difference in the game.
In the games that Detroit lost this year, their third-down defense was significantly worse than any of the games they won. It may seem like an obvious correlation, but it isn’t always the case. For example, the Colts were a Playoff team yet ranked 26th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion.
Similarly, the 49ers seemed to live and die by 3rd down efficiency. In their loss to the Browns, the 49ers were only 3-12 (25%). Whichever team finishes close or better than their average could very well end up winning the NFC Championship.
2. Which Team Will Have the Better Red Zone Scoring?
San Francisco and Detroit have the number one and two ranked touchdown-scoring offense when they get in the endzone in the entire NFL. On defense, neither team is very good, with San Francisco coming in 12th at 54.06% and the Lions coming in 29th giving up TDs in 64.41%
If this holds up, San Francisco has the clear advantage with a better defensive rating, but again, neither is particularly great at getting stops, while both are the best in the league on offense. It wouldn’t be shocking for both teams to be above 75% scoring touchdowns in the red zone on offense, but if one defense can keep the other team below that benchmark, it may end up being the difference.
Can Detroit Score in the Middle Two Quarters?
This may be the most unique stat to look at for this NFC Championship Game, but it could also be the most telling. Detroit is fifth in the NFL in points per game. They rank 2nd in the league in scoring between the first and fourth quarters (15.2 points), yet rank 11th in the league in the middle two quarters (12.5 points). Their third quarter is particularly bad where they rank 15th in the league with only 4.4 points.
On the flip side, the 49ers take a lot of pride in controlling the middle 10 minutes of the game (the last five min of 2nd quarter and the first five of 3rd). In fact, sometimes they are so conservative it almost costs them. If the 49ers defense is able to control the Lions in the middle two quarters, it may be too much for the Lions to keep up in the 1st/4th quarters.
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