A pessimist’s guide to the 2024 Houston Texans

The Houston Texans are the betting favorite to repeat as AFC South champions after upgrading their roster and adding reinforcements for another playoff run. 

Here’s why the Texans should be worried next season.

Stefon Diggs trade could backfire

Many lauded Houston for adding a receiver the caliber of Diggs, a four-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro. But his off-field antics became a distraction in Buffalo, and his poor attitude when things didn’t go his way only hurt the team. With a strong stable of receivers that includes Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Noah Brown, Diggs may not see the volume of targets he’s used to. His diva personality may start to come out if he’s relegated to second or third-fiddle in Houston’s offense.

It should also be noted that Diggs’ production tapered off last season. He had 246 fewer receiving yards, averaged nearly two fewer yards per reception and scored three fewer touchdowns than the season before despite seeing six more targets. When Diggs is unmotivated, it shows in his body of work.

C.J. Stroud could regress to the mean

Stroud’s all-time rookie season took many by surprise. He had his first 300-yard game in just his second start, his first 400-yard game in his eighth start (which was also his first five-touchdown game), he didn’t throw his first interception until his sixth start, and he finished just 266 yards and eight touchdowns shy of matching the single-season rookie records.

But for as good as Stroud’s debut season was, what if he overachieved and those results were an outlier? It’s hard to imagine that being the case considering the team around him only got better this offseason, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Nobody knows what the Texans look like with an average Stroud.

Defense still has questions

Houston lost a decent amount of defensive talent, including edge-rusher Jonathan Greenard, defensive tackles Sheldon Rankins and Teair Tart, linebackers Blake Cashman and Denzel Perryman, cornerback Steven Nelson and safety DeAndre Houston-Carson. And while the team filled some of those holes in the draft and free agency, there are still plenty of questions about the unit.

The Texans allowed the fourth-highest completion percentage against (67.6) and the 10th-most passing yards per game (234.1) last season. They lost Nelson, who was their second-best cover corner (60.8 completion percentage allowed, 10 forced incompletions, four interceptions), and Carson, who was their second-best safety. That’s an awful lot of production to be made up with two rookies and a former top-three pick who’s on his third team in five years.